No man in the machine

Unmanned aerial vehicles have proven their worth in recent real-time confrontations, but there is still a need for continued technological growth toward their maturity.

Forecast International has estimated that the market for unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems will reach $7.5 billion over the next 10 years. Payloads and ground control stations are expected to generate $4.5 billion, more than half that of vehicles such as the General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. Predator and Northrop Grumman Global Hawk. However, many of the players in the aerospace industry balk at the prospect of providing a monetary figure of where that technological niche will be in eight years. It is possible to infer from insider's reluctance to name figures that there is still a lot to learn, and that is not always a bad place to be.

Whether or not being up front with figures, nearly everyone is optimistic about the prospect of UAVs. According to Frost & Sullivan, the world market for UAV systems reached about $2.4 billion in 2000, and the firm expects a continued compound annual growth rate of about 12% until 2008. The most obvious difference between unmanned and manned aircraft is that in a manned aircraft the pilot is in the vehicle and in control, “functioning as the integrator or the onboard subsystems and mitigating problems when they occur. With the advent of UAVs, the human integrator capability is lost, which increases the probability of aircraft loss and/or mission failure,” according to the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech).