Rain and Hail Threat to Aviation: A Probability Analysis of Extreme Rain/Hail Concentrations Aloft

Curves are derived that show probability versus rain water content and hail water content. These curves apply at the “worst case” single point. The rain curve indicates rain water contents of 15.3, 18.9, and 22.4 g m^-3 at probability levels of 10^-7, 10^-8, and 10^-9, respectively. The hail curve indicates hail water contents of 8.5, 12.5, and 16.5 g m^-3 at probability levels of 10^-7, 10^-8, and 10^-9, respectively.

The rain and hail water content values listed above apply at 19,700 feet above mean sea level (rain), 15,000 feet above mean sea level (hail). Complete atmospheric vertical profiles for rain and hail are shown.