The Outlook for Ceramics in Heat Engines, 1990=2010: Results of a Worldwide Delphi Survey

A study is described that was conducted to provide a realistic technical and economic assessment of the use of advanced ceramic materials technology for heat engines in transportation applications. Key results from a worldwide Delphi survey are presented on the expected timing and rate of market development for ceramic engine components and engines. These results show that, by the mid 1990s, a substantial number of ceramic engine components will be in production and ceramic-intensive engines will be introduced. Also presented in the study are benefits and barriers to the use of ceramic technology in heat engines and other relevant factors influencing its rate of adoption. A modeling approach is presented that uses the survey data to produces a series of market penetration curves for individual ceramic engine components for light- and heavy-duty applications under different scenarios. Finally, the conditions required for rapid market development of ceramic technology for heat engines are discussed.