Fatality Trend Models

840879

04/01/1984

Event
SAE Government Industry Meeting and Exposition
Authors Abstract
Content
This paper summarizes and compares three recent fatality trend models developed at the National Center for Statistics and Analysis, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The first applies standard seasonal adjustment techniques to monthly fatality estimates and provides an assessment of short-run trends. The second uses regression techniques to model annual fatalities in terms of employment and unemployment data. The third applies more sophisticated time series techniques, including statistical causation, to monthly data for fatalities and many potential explanatory variables. None of the models was designed for forecasting the future. But in helping explain the past they identify major influences on fatalities and estimate the strength of these relationships. This in turn guides forecasts.
Meta TagsDetails
DOI
https://doi.org/10.4271/840879
Pages
8
Citation
Hedlund, J., "Fatality Trend Models," SAE Technical Paper 840879, 1984, https://doi.org/10.4271/840879.
Additional Details
Publisher
Published
Apr 1, 1984
Product Code
840879
Content Type
Technical Paper
Language
English