The Economic Impact of Electric Vehicles

Complete overnight electrification of all ground transportation in the United States is assumed in order to provide a measure of the maximum possible impact of electric vehicles. The impact on the electric utility industry would be to increase total load by roughly one-half; thus complete electrification of ground transportation at any realistic pace would pose no serious difficulties. Similarly, the automobile manufacturing and ancillary industries, although subject to change, would find no serious difficulty in adapting. The impact on the petroleum industry, however, would be serious, for about one-half of its markets would disappear. Complete electrification of ground transportation could lead to troublesome adjustment problems within the industry and in the regions in which it is important.

An especially bothersome problem would exist in public finance. Without a transfer of the motor fuel tax funds to electricity consumed in transportation, government revenues would be adversely affected. It is not clear, however, how the transfer could be made in a way that would be both equitable and administratively feasible.