The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has been announced worldwide with the aim of reducing CO2 emissions. However, a significant increase in electricity demand by EVs might impact the stable operation of the existing power grid. Meanwhile, EV charging is acceptable to most users if it is completed by the time of the next driving event. From the viewpoint of power grid operators, flexibility for shifting the timing of EV charging would be advantageous, including making effective use of renewable energy.
In this work, an EV model and simulation tool were developed to make clear how the total charging demand of all EVs in use will be influenced by future EV specifications (e.g., charge power) and installation of charging infrastructure. Among the most influential factors, EV charging behavior according to use cases and regional characteristics were statistically analyzed based on the real-world usage data of over 14, 000 EVs and incorporated in the simulation tool. Using the resultant statistical model, the Monte Carlo method was applied to conduct a parameter simulation study of continuous EV usage. The impact of EV charging demand on the power grid in a future scenario and also the benefit of controlling EV charging were evaluated quantitatively in the study. Important findings indicated that active smart charging will be necessary rather than passive control based on time-of-use tariffs.