The three foundational elements that determine mobile source energy use and tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are the tractive energy requirements of the vehicle, the energy conversion efficiency of the propulsion system, and the energy source. The tractive energy requirements are determined by the vehicle's mass, aerodynamic drag, tire rolling resistance, and parasitic drag. The energy conversion efficiency of the propulsion system is dictated by the tractive efficiency, non-tractive energy use, kinetic energy recovery, and parasitic losses. The energy source determines the mobile source CO2 emissions. For current vehicles, tractive energy requirements and overall energy conversion efficiency are readily available from the decomposition of test data. For future applications, plausible levels of mass reduction, aerodynamic drag improvements, and tire rolling resistance can be transposed into the tractive energy domain. Similarly, by combining thermodynamic, mechanical efficiency, and kinetic energy recovery fundamentals with logical proxies, achievable levels of energy conversion efficiency can be established to allow for the evaluation of future powertrain requirements. Combining the plausible levels of tractive energy and efficiency provides a means to compute sustainable vehicle and propulsion system scenarios that can achieve future regulations. Using these principles, the regulations established in the United States (U.S.) for fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are evaluated. Fleet-level scenarios are generated and compared to the technology deployment assumptions made during rule-making. When compared to the rule-making assumptions, the results indicate that a greater level of advanced vehicle and propulsion system technology deployment will be required to achieve the model year (MY) 2025 U.S. standards for fuel economy and CO2 emissions.
