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Analysis of Technology Adoption Rates in New Vehicles
Technical Paper
2014-01-0781
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
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English
Abstract
This paper examines the pace at which manufacturers have added certain powertrain technology into new vehicles from model year 1975 to the present. Based on data from the EPA's Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends database [1], the analysis will focus on several key technologies that have either reached a high level of penetration in light duty vehicles, or whose use in the new vehicle fleet has been growing in recent years. The findings indicate that individual manufacturers have, at times, implemented new technology across major portions of their new vehicle offerings in only a few model years. This is an important clarification to prior EPA analysis that indicated much longer adoption times for the industry as a whole. This new analysis suggests a technology penetration paradigm where individual manufacturers have a much shorter technology penetration cycle than the overall industry, due to “sequencing” by individual manufacturers.
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Citation
Hula, A., Alson, J., Bunker, A., and Bolon, K., "Analysis of Technology Adoption Rates in New Vehicles," SAE Technical Paper 2014-01-0781, 2014, https://doi.org/10.4271/2014-01-0781.Also In
References
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Light-Duty Automotive Technology Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975-2013 December 2013
- Argonne National Laboratory Vehicle Technology Deployment Pathways: An Examination of Timing and Investment Constraints U.S. Department of Energy Transportation Energy Futures Series March 2013
- Zoepf , S. and Heywood , J. , Characterizations of Deployment Rates in Automotive Technology SAE Int. J. Passeng. Cars - Electron. Electr. Syst. 5 2 541 552 2012 10.4271/2012-01-1057
- U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review August 2012
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Impact Analysis: Final Rulemaking for 2017-2025 Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards. EPA-420-R-016 August 2012
- DeCicco , J.M. 2010 A fuel efficiency horizon for U.S. automobiles Technical Report University of Michigan, School of Natural Resources and Environment http://energy.umich.edu/info/pdfs/Fuel%20Efficiency%20Horizon%20FINAL.pdf