This content is not included in your SAE MOBILUS subscription, or you are not logged in.
Verification of ADWICE In-Flight Icing Forecasts: Performance vs PIREPS Compared to FIP
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
Published June 13, 2011 by SAE International in United States
Annotation ability available
This study presents an evaluation of in-flight icing severity forecasts produced for the eastern United States for the winter 09/10 using the German ADWICE icing forecasting system. An instance of the underlying COSMO-EU 7km model was run over the eastern CONUS to produce four months worth of NWP data for the ADWICE algorithm. The generated icing fields were then verified using pilot reports (PIREPS) as “truth” data. In order to be able to characterize ADWICE performance over this non-native domain against a known quantity for this part of the world, a comparative verification was performed with the American FIP icing product over 1.5 months of data, using a unified set of observation PIREPS and forecast times. Subsequently, ADWICE forecasts were verified over the whole time period and analyzed with respect to seasonal, regional or altitude variations. This publication contains a description of the ADWICE algorithm, the methodology used for verification, a discussion of advantages and disadvantages of the approach and a presentation of the relevant results. The comparison with FIP shows ADWICE to achieve a comparable skill in most aspects of icing forecasts and can therefore legitimately be evaluated on its own over a larger time period.
CitationTendel, J. and Wolff, C., "Verification of ADWICE In-Flight Icing Forecasts: Performance vs PIREPS Compared to FIP," SAE Technical Paper 2011-38-0068, 2011, https://doi.org/10.4271/2011-38-0068.
- Barnes, L., Schultz, D. & Gruntfest, E. CORRIGENDUM: False Alarm Rate or False Alarm Ratio? Wea. Forecasting 24, 1452-1454 (2009).
- Ebert, E.E. Fuzzy verification of high-resolution gridded forecasts: a review and proposed framework. Meteorol Appl 15, 51-64 (2008).
- Fawcett, R. Verification Techniques and Simple Theoretical Forecast Models. Wea. Forecasting 23, 1049-1068 (2008).
- Ikeda, K., Rasmussen, R.M., Hall, W.D. & Thompson, G. Observations of Freezing Drizzle in Extratropical Cyclonic Storms during IMPROVE-2. J. Atmos. Sci. 64, 3016-3043 (2007).
- Jeck, R. A History and Interpretation of Aircraft Icing Intensity Definitions and FAA Rules for Operating in Icing Conditions. (2001).
- Jeck, R. Representative Values of Icing-Related Variables Aloft in Freezing Rain and Freezing Drizzle. (1996).
- Leifeld, C. ADWICE: Advanced Diagnosis and Warning System for Aircraft Icing Environments. (2002).
- Madine, S., Lack, S., Early, S. & Chapman, M. Quality Assessment Report: Forecast Icing Product (FIP). (2008).
- Mass, C., Ovens, D. & Westrick, K. Does increasing horizontal resolution produce more skillful forecasts. Bulletin of the American … (2002).
- McDonough, F., Bernstein, B.C. & Politovich, M.K. The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) Technical Description. 1-30 (2003).
- Politovich, M. Aircraft Icing Caused by Large Supercooled Droplets. Journal of Applied Meteorology (1989).
- Rasmussen, R., Geresdi, I., Thompson, G., Manning, K. & Karplus, E. Freezing drizzle formation in stably stratified layer clouds: The role of radiative cooling of cloud droplets, cloud condensation nuclei, and ice initiation. J. Atmos. Sci. 59, 837-860 (2002).
- Schättler, U. & Doms, G. A description of the nonhydrostatic regional model LM, Part VII: User's guide. (Deutscher Wetterdienst: 2008).
- Tafferner, A. et al. ADWICE: Advanced Diagnosis and Warning System for Aircraft Icing Environments. Wea. Forecasting 18, 184-203 (2003).
- Thompson, G. & Bruintjes, R. Intercomparison of in-flight icing algorithms. Part I: WISP94 real-time icing prediction and evaluation program. … and forecasting (1997).
- Vigeant-Langlois, L. & Hansman, R. Influence of icing information on pilot strategies for operating in icing conditions. J Aircraft 37, 937-946 (2000).