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Efficient Probabilistic Reanalysis and Optimization of a Discrete Event System

Journal Article
2011-01-1081
ISSN: 1946-3979, e-ISSN: 1946-3987
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4271/2011-01-1081
Published April 12, 2011 by SAE International in United States
Efficient Probabilistic Reanalysis and Optimization of a Discrete Event System
Citation: Li, Y., Nikolaidis, E., and Mourelatos, Z., "Efficient Probabilistic Reanalysis and Optimization of a Discrete Event System," SAE Int. J. Mater. Manuf. 4(1):1169-1187, 2011, https://doi.org/10.4271/2011-01-1081.
Language: English

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodology to evaluate and optimize discrete event systems, such as an assembly line or a call center. First, the methodology estimates the performance of a system for a single probability distribution of the inputs. Probabilistic Reanalysis (PRRA) uses this information to evaluate the effect of changes in the system configuration on its performance. PRRA is integrated with a program to optimize the system. The proposed methodology is dramatically more efficient than one requiring a new Monte Carlo simulation each time we change the system. We demonstrate the approach on a drilling center and an electronic parts factory.

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