This content is not included in
your SAE MOBILUS subscription, or you are not logged in.
A Study of a Method for Predicting the Risk of Crossing-Collisions at Intersection
Technical Paper
2008-01-0524
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
Annotation ability available
Sector:
Language:
English
Abstract
The probability or risk of traffic accidents must be estimated quantitatively in order to implement effective traffic safety measures. In this study, various statistical data and probability theory were used to examine a method for predicting the risk of crossing-collisions, representing a typical type of accident at intersections in Japan. Crossing-collisions are caused by a variety of factors, including the road geometry and traffic environment at intersections and the awareness and intentions of the drivers of the striking and struck vehicles. Bayes' theorem was applied to find the accident probability of each factor separately. Specifically, the probability of various factors being present at the time of a crossing-collision was estimated on the basis of traffic accident data and observation survey data. Accident probabilities were then estimated and compared for different types of intersections, driving patterns of striking vehicles and types of struck vehicles (automobile, motorcycle or bicycle).
The risk of a crossing-collision was found to be high at unsignalized intersections when the striking vehicle is cruising at a steady speed and the struck vehicle is a motorcycle or a bicycle. The results suggest that this combination of factors should be given priority when implementing traffic safety measures. Moreover, this paper also shows that estimated accident probabilities can be used to estimate the accident reduction effect of a driver-support system with warning and information presentation capabilities when the system induces changes in driver behavior.
Recommended Content
Authors
Topic
Citation
Hiramatsu, M., Hagino, M., and Inoue, H., "A Study of a Method for Predicting the Risk of Crossing-Collisions at Intersection," SAE Technical Paper 2008-01-0524, 2008, https://doi.org/10.4271/2008-01-0524.Also In
References
- Traffic Bureau, National Policy Agency Traffic Accident Situation in 2006 2007
- Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Road Traffic Census 1999
- Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis Traffic Statistics 2002
- Watanabe H. Introduction to Bayes' Statistics Fukumura Publishing Co. Tokyo 1999
- Machiko Hiramatsu Hideo Obara Kenjou Umezaki “Broadside collision scenarios for different types of pre-crash driving patterns” JSAE Review 24 327 334 2003
- Kohei Okabe Toshihiro Hiraoka Osamu Nishihara Hiromitsu Kumamoto “Fundamental research about the effectiveness of a safe driving support system with information provision” JSAE Review 24 4 2003
- Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Research Results Concerning the Advanced Safety Vehicle: ASV Research Results and Future Technology Policy 1997