This content is not included in
your SAE MOBILUS subscription, or you are not logged in.
Design Optimization and Reliability Estimation with Incomplete Uncertainty Information
Technical Paper
2006-01-0962
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
Annotation ability available
Sector:
Language:
English
Abstract
Existing methods for design optimization under uncertainty assume that a high level of information is available, typically in the form of data. In reality, however, insufficient data prevents correct inference of probability distributions, membership functions, or interval ranges. In this article we use an engine design example to show that optimal design decisions and reliability estimations depend strongly on uncertainty characterization. We contrast the reliability-based optimal designs to the ones obtained using worst-case optimization, and ask the question of how to obtain non-conservative designs with incomplete uncertainty information. We propose an answer to this question through the use of Bayesian statistics. We estimate the truck's engine reliability based only on available samples, and demonstrate that the accuracy of our estimates increases as more samples become available. Finally, we use this information-based reliability assessment to optimize the engine while maximizing the confidence that the design will meet or exceed a pre-specified reliability target.
Recommended Content
Authors
Citation
Gunawan, S., Kokkolaras, M., Papalambros, P., and Mourelatos, Z., "Design Optimization and Reliability Estimation with Incomplete Uncertainty Information," SAE Technical Paper 2006-01-0962, 2006, https://doi.org/10.4271/2006-01-0962.Also In
Reliability and Robust Design in Automotive Engineering, 2006
Number: SP-2032; Published: 2006-04-03
Number: SP-2032; Published: 2006-04-03
References
- Wu B. Lin C. C. Fillipi Z. Peng H. Assanis D. “Optimal Power Management for a Hydraulic Hybrid Delivery Truck,” Journal of Vehicle System Dynamics 42 1-2 23 40 2004
- Fillipi Z. Louca L. Daran B. Lin C. C. Yildir U. Wu B. Kokkolaras M. Assanis D. Peng H. Papalambros P. Stein J. “Combined Optimization of Design and Power Management of the Hydraulic Hybrid Propulsion System for a 6×6 Medium Truck,” Int. Journal of Heavy Vehicle Systems 11 3-4 371 401 2004
- Fillipi Z. Louca L. Stephanopoulou A. Pukrushpan J. Kittirungsi B. Peng H. “Fuel Cell APU for Silent Watch and Mild Electrification of a Medium Tactical Truck,” Proc. of the SAE World Congress March 2004 Detroit, MI SAE 2004-01-1477
- Assanis D. Fillipi Z. Gravante S. Grohnke D. Gu X. Louca L. Rideout G. Stein J. Wang Y. “Validation and Use of SIMULINK Integrated, High Fidelity, Engine-In-Vehicle Simulation of the International Class VI Truck,” Proc. of the SAE World Congress March 2000 Detroit, MI SAE 2000-01-0288
- Kokkolaras M. Mourelatos Z. Louca L. Fillipi Z. Delagrammatikas G. Stephanopoulou A. Papalambros P. Assanis D. “Design Under Uncertainty and Assessment of Performance Reliability of a Dual-Use Medium Truck with Hydraulic-Hybrid Powertrain and Fuel Cell Auxiliary Power Unit,” Proc. of the SAE World Congress April 2005 Detroit, MI SAE 2005-01-1396
- Du X. Chen W. “Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment Method for Efficient Probabilistic Design,” ASME Journal of Mechanical Design 126 2 225 233 2004
- Royset J. Der Kiureghian A. Polak E. “Reliability-Based Optimal Structural Design by the Decoupling Approach,” Reliability Engineering & Systems Safety 73 213 221 2001
- Liang J. Mourelatos Z. Tu J. “A Single-Loop Method for Reliability-Based Design Optimization,” Proc. of the ASME IDETC Sept. 2004 Salt Lake City, UT
- Dubois D. Prade H. Possibility Theory Plennum Press New York 1988
- Ross T. J. Fuzzy Logic with Engineering Applications McGraw Hill New York 1995
- Elishakoff I. Haftka R. Fang J. “Structural Design under Bounded Uncertainty - Optimization with Anti-optimization,” Int. Journal of Computers & Structures 53 6 1401 1405 1994
- Jones D. “The DIRECT Global Optimization Algorithm,” Encyclopedia of Optimization 1 431 440 2001
- Kokkolaras M. Mourelatos Z.P. Papalambros P.Y. “Impact of Uncertainties on Design Decisions for a Hydraulic-Hybrid Powertrain Engine,” 1st AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference May 1-4 2006 Newport, Rhode Island
- Kokkolaras M. Mourelatos Z.P. Papalambros P.Y. “Impact of Uncertainty Quantification on Design: An Engine Optimization Case Study,” International Journal of Reliability and Safety
- Lee P. Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction Oxford University Press New York 1989
- Congdon P. Bayesian Statistical Modeling Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics John Wiley & Sons New York 2004