This content is not included in
your SAE MOBILUS subscription, or you are not logged in.
Eliminating Design Alternatives Based on Imprecise Information
Technical Paper
2006-01-0272
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
Annotation ability available
Sector:
Language:
English
Abstract
In this paper, the relationship between uncertainty and sets of alternatives in engineering design is investigated. In sequential decision making, each decision alternative actually consists of a set of design alternatives. Consequently, the decision-maker can express his or her preferences only imprecisely as a range of expected utilities for each decision alternative. In addition, the performance of each design alternative can be characterized only imprecisely due to uncertainty from limited data, modeling assumptions, and numerical methods. The approach presented in this paper recognizes the presence of both imprecision and sets in the design process by focusing on incrementally eliminating decision alternatives until a small set of solutions remains. This is a fundamental shift from the current paradigm where the focus is on selecting a single decision alternative in each design decision. To make this approach economically feasible, one needs efficient methods for eliminating alternatives-that is, methods that eliminate as many alternatives as possible given the available imprecise information. Efficient elimination requires that one account for dependencies between uncertain quantities, such as shared uncertain variables. In this paper, criteria for elimination with and without shared uncertainty are presented and compared. The set-based nature of design and the presence of imprecision are introduced, elimination criteria are discussed, and the overall set-based approach and elimination criteria are demonstrated with the design of a gearbox as an example problem.
Recommended Content
Authors
Citation
Rekuc, S., Aughenbaugh, J., Bruns, M., and Paredis, C., "Eliminating Design Alternatives Based on Imprecise Information," SAE Technical Paper 2006-01-0272, 2006, https://doi.org/10.4271/2006-01-0272.Also In
Reliability and Robust Design in Automotive Engineering, 2006
Number: SP-2032; Published: 2006-04-03
Number: SP-2032; Published: 2006-04-03
References
- Arrow, K. Hurwicz L. 1972 “An Optimality Criterion for Decision-Making under Uncertainty” Uncertainty and Expectation in Economics: Essays in Honour of G. L. S. Shackle Carter C. F. Ford J. L. Blackwell
- Aughenbaugh, J. M. Ling J. M. Paredis C. J. J. 2005 “Applying Information Economics and Imprecise Probabilities to Data Collection in Design” 2005 ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition Orlando, FL, USA
- Aughenbaugh, J. M. Paredis C. J. J. 2004 “The Role and Limitations of Modeling and Simulation in Systems Design” 2004 ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition Anaheim, CA, USA
- Aughenbaugh, J. M. Paredis C. J. J. 2005 “The Value of Using Imprecise Probabilities in Engineering Design” ASME 2005 DETC DTM Long Beach, CA, USA
- Ben-Haim, Y. 2001 Information Gap Decision Theory London Academic Press
- Berger, J. O. 1985 Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis Springer
- Berleant, D. Goodman-Strauss C. 1998 “Bounding the Results of Arithmetic Operations on Random Variables of Unknown Dependency Using Intervals.” Reliable Computing 4 2 147 165
- Bruns, M. 2006 Propagation of Imprecise Probabilities through Black Box Models Master of Science, Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
- Carnahan, J. V. Thurston D. L. Liu T. 1994 “Fuzzy Ratings for Multiattribute Design Decision-Making.” Journal of Mechanical Design, Transactions Of the ASME 116 2 511
- Chen, W. Allen J. K. Marvis D. N. Mistree F. 1996 “A Concept Exploration Method for Determining Robust Top-Level Specifications.” Engineering Optimization 26 137 158
- Der Kiureghian, A. 1989 “Measures of Structural Safety under Imperfect States of Knowledge.” ASCE Journal of Structural Engineering 115 5 1119 1139
- Devore, J. L. 1995 Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences New York Duxbury Press
- Ferson, S. 2002 “Ramas Risk Calc 4.0 Software: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers” Boca Raton, Florida Lewis Publishers
- Ferson, S. Donald S. 1998 “Probability Bounds Analysis” International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM4) New York, NY Springer-Verlag
- Ferson, S. Ginzburg L. R. 1996 “Different Methods Are Needed to Propagate Ignorance and Variability.” Reliability Engineering & System Safety 54 2-3 133 144
- Finch, W. W. 1997 “A Set-Based System for Eliminating Infeasible Designs in Engineering Problems Dominated by Uncertainty” ASME Design Engineering Technical Conferences Sacramento, California ASME
- Garvey, P. R. 1999 Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective New York Marcel Dekker, Inc.
- Gupta, S. K. Xu C. 2002 “Estimating the Optimal Number of Alternatives to Be Explored in Large Design Spaces: A Step Towards Incorporating Decision Making Cost in Design Decision Models” ASME 2002 DETC CIE Montreal, Canada
- Hansen, E. Walster G. W. 2004 Global Optimization Using Interval Analysis New York Marcel Dekker, Inc.
- Hazelrigg, G. A. 1998 “A Framework for Decision-Based Design.” Journal of Mechanical Design 120 4 653 658
- Hofer, E. 1996 “When to Separate Uncertainties and When Not to Separate.” Reliability Engineering & System Safety 54 2-3 113 118
- Hoffman, F. O. Hammonds J. S. 1994 “Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability.” Risk Analysis 14 5 707 712
- Kearfott, R. B. Kreinovich V. 1996 Applications of Interval Computations AH Dordrecht, The Netherlands Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Kirkwood, C. W. Sarin R. K. 1985 “Ranking with Partial Information: A Method and an Application.” Operations Research 33 38 48
- Kreinovich, V. Ferson S. Ginzburg L. Schulte H. Barry M. Nguyen H. 1999 “From Interval Methods of Representing Uncertainty to a General Description of Uncertainty” International Conference on Information Technology Bhubaneswar, India McGraw-Hill
- Kyburg, H. E., Jr. Pittarelli M. 1996 “Set-Based Bayesianism.” IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man & Cybernetics, Part A (Systems & Humans) 26 3 324
- Law, A. M. Kelton W. D. 2000 Simulation Modeling and Analysis Boston, MA McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
- Levi, I. 1974 “On Indeterminate Probabilities.” Journal of Philosophy 71 391 418
- Mistree, F. Smith W. F. Bras B. A. Allen J. K. Muster D. 1990 “Decision-Based Design. A Contemporary Paradigm for Ship Design” 1990 SNAME Annual Meeting Oct 31 Nov 3 1990 San Francisco, CA, USA Soc of Naval Architects & Marine Engineers Jersey City, NJ, USA
- Moore, R. E. 1979 Methods and Applications of Interval Analysis Philadelphia Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
- Muhanna, R. L. Mullen R. L. 2004 “Interval Methods for Reliable Computing” Engineering Design Reliability Handbook Nikolaidis E. Ghiocel D. M. Singhal S. New York, NY CRC Press
- Nikolaidis, E. 2005 “Types of Uncertainty in Design Decision Making” Engineering Design Reliability Handbook Nikolaidis E. Ghiocel D. M. Singhal S. New York CRC Press
- Oberkampf, W. L. DeLand S. M. Rutherford B. M. Diegert K. V. Alvin K. F. 2002 “Error and Uncertainty in Modeling and Simulation.” Reliability Engineering and System Safety 75 3 333 357
- Otto, K. N. Antonsson E. K. 1992 “The Method of Imprecision Compared to Utility Theory for Design Selection Problems.” ASME 1993 Design Theory and Methodology Conference
- Parry, G. W. 1996 “The Characterization of Uncertainty in Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Complex Systems.” Reliability Engineering and System Safety 54 2-3 119 126
- Parunak, H. V. D. Ward A. Fleisher M. Sauter J. 1997 “A Marketplace of Design Agents for Distributed Concurrent Set-Based Design” ISPE International Conference on Concurrent Engineering: Research and Applications (ISPE/CE97) Troy, Michigan ISPE
- Pratt, J. W. Raiffa H. Schlaifer R. 1995 Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory Cambridge, MA The MIT Press
- Rekuc, S. J. 2005 Eliminating Design Alternatives under Interval-Based Uncertainty Master of Science, Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
- Seidenfeld, T. Schervish M. J. Kadane J. B. 1995 “A Representation of Partially Ordered Preferences.” The Annals of Statistics 23 9 2168 2217
- Simon, H. 1982 The Sciences of the Artificial ( Second Edition) Cambridge, MA The MIT Press
- Sobek, D. K., II Ward A. C. Liker J. 1999 “Toyota's Principles of Set-Based Concurrent Engineering.” Sloan Management Review 40 2 67 83
- Sobek, D. K. I. 2004 “Explaining the Second Toyota Paradox by Modeling Real Options in Product Development.” IEEE Transaction on Engineering Management
- Tong, C. Sriram D. 1992 Artificial Intelligence in Engineering Design: Models of Innovative Design, Reasoning About Physical Systems, and Reasoning About Geometry (Artificial Intelligence in Engineering Design) Boston Academic Press
- von Neumann, J. Morgenstern O. 1944 Theory of Games and Economic Behavior Princeton, NJ Princeton University Press
- Walley, P. 1991 Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities New York Chapman and Hall
- Williamson, R. C. Downs T. 1990 “Probabilistic Arithmetic I: Numerical Methods for Calculating Convolutions and Dependency Bounds”.” International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 4 89 158
- Winkler, R. L. 1996 “Uncertainty in Probabilistic Risk Assessment.” Reliability Engineering & System Safety 54 2-3 127 132
- Zaffalon, M. Wesnes K. Petrini O. 2003 “Reliable Diagnoses of Dementia by the Naive Credal Classifier Inferred from Incomplete Cognitive Data.” Artificial Intelligence in Medicine 29 1-2 61 79