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Development of a Fuzzy Expert System for Aviation Risk Modeling
Technical Paper
2005-01-3357
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
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English
Abstract
The Flight Operations Risk Assessment System (FORAS) is a risk modeling methodology which represents risk factors and their interrelationships as a fuzzy expert system. The FORAS process systematizes the process of eliciting human expertise, provides for a natural representation of the knowledge in an expert system, and automates the process of risk assessment.
There are many challenges in developing such a system. These include the selection of relevant subject matter experts, the combination and reconciliation of multiple, subjective knowledge bases, and the representation of knowledge in a model easily expressed, evaluated, and revised. This paper will present the technical background of the FORAS methodology, and demonstrate its implementation, as performed on its first operational partner, EVA Airways, of Taiwan.
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Authors
Citation
Hadjimichael, M. and McCarthy, J., "Development of a Fuzzy Expert System for Aviation Risk Modeling," SAE Technical Paper 2005-01-3357, 2005, https://doi.org/10.4271/2005-01-3357.Also In
References
- CFIT Checklist Flight Safety Foundation 601 Madison Street, Suite 300, Alexandria, Virginia U.S. 22314 1756
- FuzzyCLIPS National Research Council Canada, Institute for Information Technology, Integrated Reasoning Group 1200 Montreal Road, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, K1A 0R6 bob.orchard@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca
- Hadjimichael, M. McCarthy. J. Using a Fuzzy Expert System to Represent Risk: FORAS World Aviation Congress Reno, NV Society of Automotive Engineers 2004
- Kandel, A. Fuzzy Expert Systems CRC Press Boca Raton, FL 1992
- Luxhøj, J.T. “Probabilistic Causal Analysis for System Safety Risk Assessments in Commercial Air Transport,” Proceedings of the Workshop on Investigating and Reporting of Incidents and Accidents (IRIA) 17 38 Williamsburg, VA September 16–19