A Bayesian Estimate of Vehicle Safety Performance

This paper describes the development of a Bayesian estimate of vehicle safety performance. The vehicle crash testing is conducted often using a very small sample size. With these limited tests, one often has to face the following question, “what is the confidence to meet the design target or government compliance in a subsequent test?”

The prediction methods will be discussed to determine the confidence in meeting overall the design requirements based on successful test results with multiple responses and design targets.