This content is not included in
your SAE MOBILUS subscription, or you are not logged in.
Determining the Relative Likelihoods of Competing Scenarios of Events Leading to an Accident
Technical Paper
2004-01-1222
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
Annotation ability available
Sector:
Language:
English
Abstract
Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the likelihoods of competing scenarios offered by opposing parties involved in a motor vehicle accident. A case study is presented in which there is a dispute among the parties about who passed who first. It is shown that even though both scenarios are possible, one of the scenarios has a much greater likelihood.
Besides demonstrating how Monte Carlo simulation provides probability information that can be used to weigh the likelihood of competing scenarios, the case study also provides another example of how Monte Carlo simulation can dig information out of the evidence surrounding an accident that cannot be obtained by other methods.
Authors
Topic
Citation
Kimbrough, S., "Determining the Relative Likelihoods of Competing Scenarios of Events Leading to an Accident," SAE Technical Paper 2004-01-1222, 2004, https://doi.org/10.4271/2004-01-1222.Also In
References
- Wood D. O'Riordain S. “Monte Carlo Simulation Methods Applied to Accident Reconstruction and Avoidance Analysis” SAE 940720
- Kost G. Werner S. “Use of Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques in Accident Reconstruction” SAE 940719
- Brach R. Uncertainty in Accident Reconstruction Calculations SAE 940722
- McMillan N.J. et al. “Statistics Based Simulation Methodology for Evaluating Collision Countermeasure System Performance” ITSC Proceedings of 1997, IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems 490 495
- Narendran V.K. et al. “Analytical Methodology for Design and Performance Assessment of Run-off-Road Collision Avoidance” SAE 970455
- Kimbrough S. “Probability Analysis of Motor Vehicle Accidents” ASME IMEC2002-32957
- Bartlett W. Conducting Monte Carlo Analysis with Spreadsheet Programs SAE 2003-01-0487
- Moser A. et. al. “Application of the Monte Carlo Methods for Stability Analysis within the Accident Reconstruction Software PC-CRASH” SAE 2003-01-0488
- Kimbrough S. “Monte Carlo Analysis of Safe Following Distances under Different Road Conditions” ASME IMEC2003-42865
- Papoulis A. Probability, Random Variables, and Stochastic Processes McGraw Hill 1965 07-048448-1
- Baker J. Fricke L. Traffic Accident Investigation Manual Northwestern University Traffic Institute 0-912642-06-8
- Limpert R. Motor Vehicle Accident Reconstruction and Cause Analysis Lexis Publishing 1999 0-327-04974-X
- Press et al. Numerical Recipes Cambridge Press 1986 0 521 30811 9
- Olsen P. Forensics Aspects of Driver Perception and Response Lawyers and Judges Publishing Company 1996 0-913875-22-8
- Croteau J et al. “Determining Closing Speed in Rear End Impact Collisions with Offset and Override” SAE 2001-01-1170
- Billingsley P. Probability and Measure Wiley New York 1979 0 471 03173 9