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What FutureCar MPG Levels and Technology Will be Necessary?
Technical Paper
2002-01-1899
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
Annotation ability available
Sector:
Event:
Future Car Congress
Language:
English
Abstract
The potential peaking of world conventional oil production and the possible imperative to reduce carbon emissions will put great pressure on vehicle manufacturers to produce more efficient vehicles, on vehicle buyers to seek them out in the marketplace, and on energy suppliers to develop new fuels and delivery systems.
Four cases for stabilizing or reducing light vehicle fuel use, oil use, and/or carbon emissions over the next 50 years are presented.
- Case 1 -Improve mpg so that the fuel use in 2020 is stabilized for the next 30 years.
- Case 2 -Improve mpg so that by 2030 the fuel use is reduced to the 2000 level and is reduced further in subsequent years.
- Case 3 -Case 1 plus 50% ethanol use and 50% low-carbon fuel cell vehicles by 2050.
- Case 4 -Case 2 plus 50% ethanol use and 50% low-carbon fuel cell vehicles by 2050.
The mpg targets for new cars and light trucks require that significant advances be made in developing cost-effective and very efficient vehicle technologies. With the use of alternative fuels that are low in carbon, oil use and carbon emissions can be reduced even further.
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Authors
Citation
Patterson, P., Steiner, E., and Singh, M., "What FutureCar MPG Levels and Technology Will be Necessary?," SAE Technical Paper 2002-01-1899, 2002, https://doi.org/10.4271/2002-01-1899.Also In
References
- Future U.S. Highway Energy Use: A Fifty Year Perspective,” Birky Alicia et al. Office of Transportation Technologies
- A summary of some of the peaking projections is at the “hubbertpeak” http://www.hubbertpeak.com/curves.htm
- Moore, Jim “Natural Gas Availability,” TA Engineering, Inc. 2001
- Greene, David Tishchishyna, N. “The Costs of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update,” Transportation Quarterly 55 3 2001
- Tien Nguyen Office of Transportation Technologies, DOE September 7 2001
- EIA Monthly Energy Review July 2001
- Maples John Vyas Anant Singh Margaret
- EPA “Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends 1975 Through 2001,” September 2001 http://www.epa.gov/otaq/cert/mpg/fetrends/r01008.pdf
- “Highway Statistics Summary to 1995,” Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation July 1997
- Highway Statistics Summary to 1995 Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation July 1997 2000
- EIA “Annual Energy Outlook 2002,” 2002 December 2002
- Greene David Oak Ridge National Laboratory “Fuel Economy Rebound Effect for U.S. Household Vehicles,” The Energy Journal 20 3 1999
- Weiss, Malcolm et al. “On the Road in 2020,” October 2000
- “Drilling in Detroit,” Friedman David et al. Union of Concerned Scientists June 2001
- National Research Council, NAS “Effectiveness and Impact of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards,” July 31 2001
- Davis, Stacy “Transportation Energy Data Book,” 21 Oak Ridge National Laboratory September 2001