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What FutureCar MPG Levels and Technology Will be Necessary?
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
Published June 03, 2002 by SAE International in United States
Annotation ability available
Event: Future Car Congress
The potential peaking of world conventional oil production and the possible imperative to reduce carbon emissions will put great pressure on vehicle manufacturers to produce more efficient vehicles, on vehicle buyers to seek them out in the marketplace, and on energy suppliers to develop new fuels and delivery systems.
Four cases for stabilizing or reducing light vehicle fuel use, oil use, and/or carbon emissions over the next 50 years are presented.
- Case 1 -Improve mpg so that the fuel use in 2020 is stabilized for the next 30 years.
- Case 2 -Improve mpg so that by 2030 the fuel use is reduced to the 2000 level and is reduced further in subsequent years.
- Case 3 -Case 1 plus 50% ethanol use and 50% low-carbon fuel cell vehicles by 2050.
- Case 4 -Case 2 plus 50% ethanol use and 50% low-carbon fuel cell vehicles by 2050.
The mpg targets for new cars and light trucks require that significant advances be made in developing cost-effective and very efficient vehicle technologies. With the use of alternative fuels that are low in carbon, oil use and carbon emissions can be reduced even further.
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CitationPatterson, P., Steiner, E., and Singh, M., "What FutureCar MPG Levels and Technology Will be Necessary?," SAE Technical Paper 2002-01-1899, 2002, https://doi.org/10.4271/2002-01-1899.
- Future U.S. Highway Energy Use: A Fifty Year Perspective,” Birky Alicia et al., at the Office of Transportation Technologies web site: http://www.ott.doe.gov/future_highway.shtml
- A summary of some of the peaking projections is at the “hubbertpeak” web site (http://www.hubbertpeak.com/curves.htm).
- Moore, Jim, “Natural Gas Availability,” TA Engineering, Inc., 2001, draft.
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- Tien Nguyen, Office of Transportation Technologies, DOE, memo, September 7, 2001.
- EIA, Monthly Energy Review, July 2001, Table 1.10.
- Maples John, currently working for EIA, developed the first version of the VISION spreadsheet model in 1999 when a member of the OTT laboratory analytic team. Vyas Anant, Argonne National Laboratory, extensively revised the model in 2001. Documentation of the model was provided by Singh Margaret in early 2002.
- EPA, “Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends 1975 Through 2001,” EPA420-R01-008, September 2001. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/cert/mpg/fetrends/r01008.pdf
- “Highway Statistics Summary to 1995,” Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, July 1997.
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- EIA, “Annual Energy Outlook 2002,” DOE/EIA-0383 (2002), December 2002.
- Greene David, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and others estimate the long-run rebound effect to be about 20% in “Fuel Economy Rebound Effect for U.S. Household Vehicles,” The Energy Journal, Volume 20, Number 3, 1999.
- Weiss, Malcolm, et al., “On the Road in 2020,” MIT EL 00-003, October 2000.
- “Drilling in Detroit,” Friedman David et al., Union of Concerned Scientists, June 2001.
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