This content is not included in
your SAE MOBILUS subscription, or you are not logged in.
An Application of a Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) Method to an Uninhabited Combat Aerial Vehicle
Technical Paper
1999-01-5633
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
Annotation ability available
Sector:
Language:
English
Abstract
In today’s atmosphere of lower U.S. defense spending and reduced research budgets, determining how to allocate resources for research and design has become a critical and challenging task. In the area of aircraft design there are many promising technologies to be explored, yet limited funds with which to explore them. In addition, issues concerning uncertainty in technology readiness as well as the quantification of the impact of a technology (or combinations of technologies), are of key importance during the design process. The methodology presented in this paper details a comprehensive and structured process in which to explore the effects of technology for a given baseline aircraft. This process, called Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF), involves the creation of a forecasting environment for use in conjunction with defined technology scenarios. The advantages and limitations of the method will be discussed, as well its place in an overall methodology used for technology infusion. In addition, the example TIF application used in this paper, that of an Uninhabited Combat Aerial Vehicle, serves to illustrate the applicability of this methodology to a military system.
Recommended Content
Technical Paper | Workload and Automation |
Technical Paper | Macro-Aerodynamics: – A Phenomenological Model of Highly Non-linear Aerodynamics |
Technical Paper | Towards a Model-Based Energy System Design Process |
Authors
Citation
Mavris, D., Soban, D., and Largent, M., "An Application of a Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) Method to an Uninhabited Combat Aerial Vehicle," SAE Technical Paper 1999-01-5633, 1999, https://doi.org/10.4271/1999-01-5633.Also In
References
- Fabrycky, W.J. Blanchard, B.S. Life-Cycle Cost and Economic Analysis Prentice-Hall Inc. Englewood Cliffs New Jersey 1991
- Roth, B. Mavris, D. Analysis of Advanced Technology Impact on HSCT Engine Cycle Performance Presented at the 35th Joint Propulsion Conference Los Angeles June 1999 AIAA 99-2379
- Mavris, D.N. Baker, A.P. Schrage, D.P. Implementation of a Technology Impact Forecast Technique on a Civil Tiltrotor Proceedings of the 55th National Forum of the American Helicopter Society, Montreal Quebec, Canada May 25-27 1999
- Mavris, D.N. Kirby, M.R. Qiu, S. Technology Impact Forecasting for a High Speed Civil Transport World Aviation Congress and Exposition Anaheim, CA September 28-30 1998 SAE- 985547 .
- Kirby, M.R. Mavris, D.N. Forecasting the Impact of Technology Infusion on Subsonic Transport Affordability World Aviation Congress and Exposition Anaheim, CA September 28-30 1998 SAE- 985576 .
- Mavris, D.N. Kirby, M.R. Forecasting Technology Uncertainty in Preliminary Aircraft Design World Aviation Congress San Francisco, CA October 19- 21 1999 SAE Paper 1999-01-5631 .
- Mavris, D.N. Kirby, M.R. Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection for Commercial Transport Aircraft 58th Annual Conference Of Society of Allied Weight Engineers San Jose, California 24-26 May 1999
- Box, G.E.P Draper, N.R. Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces John Wiley & Sons New York 1987
- Montegomery, D.C. Design and Analysis of Experiments 3 rd John Wiley & Sons New York 1991
- Mavris, D.N. Bandte, O. Schrage, D.P. Application of Probabilistic Methods for the Determination of an Economically Robust HSCT Configuration AIAA 96- 4090
- DeLaurentis, D.A. Mavris, D.N. Schrage, D.P. System Synthesis in Preliminary Aircraft Design Using Statistical Methods 20th International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences (ICAS) Congress Sorrento, Italy September 8-13 1996
- DeLaurentis, D.A. Mavris, D.N. Calise, A.C. Schrage, D.P. Generating Dynamic Models Including Uncertainty for Use in Aircraft Conceptual Design AIAA Atmospheric Flight Mechanics Conference New Orleans, LA Aug. 1997 AIAA-97-3590
- SAS Institute Inc JMP, Computer Program and Users Manual Cary, NC 1994
- Decisioneering, Inc Crystal Ball, Computer Program and Users Guide Denver, CO 1993
- Ruszkowski, Robert A Conversation on July 6 1999 and corresponding email