This content is not included in your SAE MOBILUS subscription, or you are not logged in.
Forecasting Engine and Airframe Development Cost
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
Published September 01, 1995 by SAE International in United States
Annotation ability available
Development programs for aircraft engines (272 programs) and airframes (338 programs) were evaluated with step-wise regression analysis to find correlations with program cost; i.e., the coefficients of parametric models. Data covering the last 50 to 60 years were included to obtain robust log-log models with approximately 20 independent variables. Standard errors (S.E.E.) less than 0.10 (log megabucks), and multiple correlation coefficients (R-Square) greater than 0.995 were obtained, validating the use of data from programs in the distant past. Some unexpected influence coefficients were found for program cost drivers.
CitationCuly, D., "Forecasting Engine and Airframe Development Cost," SAE Technical Paper 952031, 1995, https://doi.org/10.4271/952031.
- Culy, D. G. Gossen J. J. July 1984 “Monte Carlo Simulation of the Engine Development Process” Journal of Aircraft American Institute of Astronautics and Aeronautics
- Nelson, J.R. November 1977 “Life Cycle Analysis of Aircraft Turbine Engines” Rand Report R-2103 The Rand Corp. Santa Monica, CA
- Pulito, V.J. 1980 “USAF Modular Life Cycle Model for Advanced Aircraft Systems” 1 USAF Dayton, OH
- Hess, R.W. Romanoff H.P. December 1987 “Aircraft Airframe Cost Estimating Relationships” Rand Report R-3255 The Rand Corp. Santa Monica, CA
- Jane's All the World's Aircraft var. Jane's Information Group Couldsdon, England
- Gunston, Bill World Encyclopedia of Aero Engines Patrick Stephens Wellingborough, England 1986
- Wagner, Ray American Combat Planes Doubleday Garden City, New York 1982
- Knaack, Marcelle Encyclopedia of U.S. Air Force Aircraft and Missile Systems Office of Air Force History Washington, D.C. 1978
- Knaack, Marcelle Post-World War II Bombers Office of Air Force History Washington, D.C. 1988
- Stevenson, James The Pentagon Paradox Naval Institute Press Annapolis, MD 1993