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Reliability Prediction Methodology and Procedures
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English
Abstract
Reliability prediction is the process of quantitatively assessing the reliability of a system during its development. It permits a quantitative evaluation of design alternatives and progress being achieved relative to a reliability target.
This paper introduces the prediction process as applied to electronic systems and components and discusses its applications and limitations.
The several techniques such as parts count and part stress analysis are described along with application procedures.
A key element to prediction is availability of credible data on the component parts that comprise electronic systems. Major attention is given to models of MIL-HDBK-217B. Most Handbook data requires translation from military to typical automotive conditions particularly with regard to operational environment. Guidelines and recommendations for utilization of 217B methodology and data for predicting reliability for automotive electronic systems is described.
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Authors
Citation
Mirth, L. and Walker, R., "Reliability Prediction Methodology and Procedures," SAE Technical Paper 770226, 1977, https://doi.org/10.4271/770226.Also In
References
- Military Standardization Handbook, MIL-HDBK-217B, Revision Notice 1 “Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equipment,” Sept. 1976
- Derr J. H. Van Hoorde G. R. Girdis J. J. “Predicting the Reliability of Systems Using Complex MOS/LSI Devices in Automotive Applications.” IEEE Reliability and Maintainability Symposium January 1975
- Rayner C. S. “Electronic Equipment Earning Its Place On European Vehicles” SAE Paper 750200 February 1975
- Lemberg G. P. “Electronic Equipment Usage on Japanese Vehicles” SAE Paper 750501 February 1975
- Gorille I. Rittmansberger N. Warner P. “Bosch Electronic Fuel Injection with Closed Loop Control” SAE Paper 750368 February 1975
- Anderson R. T. “Reliability Design Handbook, RDH-376 March 1976 Reliability Analysis Center