This content is not included in your SAE MOBILUS subscription, or you are not logged in.
Application of Maximum Entropy in Estimating the Reliability Functions for Creep Failure Modes of Engineering Materials at High Temperatures
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
Published February 01, 1967 by SAE International in United States
Annotation ability available
The principle of maximum entropy is used to obtain the prior probability distribution functions for critical creep-strain and creep-rupture characteristics of engineering materials, operating at known high temperatures and uniaxial stresses. From the prior distribution function obtained, reliability function which is simply the probability of successful operation of the material, can be derived for specified critical creep-strain and creep-rupture modes of failure. An attempt is made to derive the reliability functions from prior considerations of the mechanics of failure, and the mechanical and physical characteristics of engineering materials. This work assumes that mechanical creep design reliability functions for creep-rupture and critical creep-strain modes of structural elements can have values such that the failure of the elements can occur either by any of the modes of failure or by the assumed combined modes of failure. It is also pointed out that the prior probability distribution functions from which the reliability functions are derived, can be improved by the use of Bayes' theorem in order to obtain a posterior probability distribution function, whenever more creep data are made available. The posterior probability distribution functions can then be used to derive more accurate reliability functions. Finally, these considerations and procedures which yield the reliability design criteria, are illustrated by an application to the stress analysis of a structural member, with given mechanical, physical, environmental and creep characteristics.
CitationSoboyejo, A., "Application of Maximum Entropy in Estimating the Reliability Functions for Creep Failure Modes of Engineering Materials at High Temperatures," SAE Technical Paper 670648, 1967, https://doi.org/10.4271/670648.
- Shannon C. E. “A Mathematical Theory of Communication.” Bell System Tech. Journal July & October 1948
- Jaynes E. T. “Probability Theory in Science and Engineering.” New York McGraw Hill Book Co. 1961
- Yokobori T. Ohara H. “Statistical Aspects in Accelerating Creep and Creep Fracture of OFHC Copper.” J. of Physical Soc. of Japan 13 3 March 1958 305 312
- Taira S. Koterawaza R. “Investigation on Dynamic Creep and Creep Rupture of a Low Carbon Steel.” Bulletin of Japan Soc. Mech. Engrs. 14 1961 238
- Phillips C. W. Sinnott J. J. “A Statistical Study of the Stress-Rupture Test.” Trans. Amer. Soc. of Metals 46 1954 63
- McBride J. G. Mulhern B. Widmer R. “Creep Rupture Properties of Six Elevated Temperature Alloys.” New England Materials Laboratory, Medfor, Mass., Tech. Doc. Rep. No. WADD-TR-61-199, prepared under Contract No. AF 33(6l6)-6200 August 1962
- Simon R. “Dimensionless Parameter Reliability Analysis and Application to Mechanical Creep.” J. of Basic Engr. ASME. March 1966 87 92
- Eyring H. “Viscosity, Plasticity, and Diffusion as Examples of Absolute Reaction Rates.” Jour. of Chem. Physics 41 1936 283
- Mesloh R. “Reliability Design Criteria for Mechanical Creep.” Annals of Reliability and Maintainability 5 1966 590 597
- Parzen E. “Modern Probability Theory and Its Applications.” John Wiley New York 1960 119
- Raiffa H. Schlaifer R.
- Shah H. C. “Principle of Maximum Entropy and Its Applications in Reliability Estimation of Aircraft Structures.” Final Report to NAEC under Contract No. N156-45588 and to be presented at the AIAA/ASME Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference Palm Springs, California March 1967
- Hult J. “Creep in Engineering Structures.” Blaisdell Publishing Co. 1966