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Reliability Prediction - An Engineering Appraisal
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English
Abstract
This paper examines the state of health of reliability prediction and in the context of the progress achieved over the past eight to nine years finds it lacking in several important respects, some of these being accuracy as related to the requirements for it, and a lack of precision in the basic failure rate data and its application.
The author focuses attention on six major activity areas wherein effort should be initiated or greatly expanded to correct the existing situation. These include establishment of a standard “benchmark” for failure rate data, a new approach to the prediction problem for mechanical items, evaluation of process variations, and application of quality data.
The author closes with the admonition that in view of the highly projectized thinking attending the growth of military and aerospace activities today, reliability and quality organizations and people must assume an innovative role in new areas if substantive progress is to result.
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Citation
Koppenhaver, J., "Reliability Prediction - An Engineering Appraisal," SAE Technical Paper 640567, 1964, https://doi.org/10.4271/640567.Also In
References
- Summary Report, Techniques for Reliability Measurement and Prediction Based on Field Failure Data, Technical Report No. 80 10 Oct 1955 Vitro Laboratories, Silver Spring, Md.
- Investigation of Electronic Equipment Reliability, Air Force Reliability Assurance Program, Progress Report No. 1 Feb 15 1956 Aeronautical Radio, Inc. Washington 6, D. C.
- Chapter 9, Fundamentals of Reliability Prediction, ARINC Research Corp. Reliability Engineering Course Material.
- Advance Draft, Proposed Reliability Assurance Program for Use in the Design, Development and Production of Guided Missile Weapon Systems 29 Oct 1957 Office of Guided Missiles, OASD R&E.
- Carhart, A Survey of the Current Status of the Electronic Reliability Problem, Research Memorandum RM-1131 14 Aug 1953 Rand Corp. Santa Monica, Calif
- Yearly Review of Progress July 15 1960 Publication No. 101˒8-166 ARINC Research Corp. Washington, D. C.
- Madison Herd Gottfried Reliability Variation Analysis for Space System Development Nov 1963 Booz-Allen Applied Research, Inc. Washington, D. C.
- Smoking and Health, Report of the Advisory Committee to the Surgeon General of the Public Health Service, PHS Publication No. 1103.