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Automated Driving System Safety: Miles for 95% Confidence in “Vision Zero”

Driving Safety Consulting LLC-Richard Allen Young
  • Technical Paper
  • 2020-01-1205
To be published on 2020-04-14 by SAE International in United States
Engineering reliability models from RAND, MobilEye, and Volvo concluded that billions of miles of on-road data were required to validate that the real-world fatality rate of an “Automated Driving System-equipped vehicle” (AV) fleet for an improvement over human-driven conventional vehicles (CV). RAND said 5 billion miles for 20%, MobileEye 30 billion for 99.9%, and Volvo 5 billion for 50% improvement. All these models used the Gaussian distribution, which is inaccurate for low crash numbers. The current study proposes a new epidemiologic method and criterion to validate real-world AV data with 95% confidence for zero to ten fatal crashes. The upper confidence limit (UL) of the AV fatal crash rate has to be lower than the CV fatal crash rate with 95% confidence. That criterion is met if the UL of the AV fatal crash incidence rate ratio estimate is below one. That UL was estimated using the mid-P exact method for calculating confidence limits for a dual Poisson process, using a one-tailed 95% confidence level. The required AV mileage was adjusted by trial and error…
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Platooning Vehicles Control for Balancing Coupling Maintenance and Trajectory Tracking - Feasibility Study Using Scale-Model Vehicles

Kubota Corp.-Ayumi Suzuki
The University of Tokyo-Rui Fukui, Qiwei Ye, Shin’ichi Warisawa
  • Technical Paper
  • 2020-01-0128
To be published on 2020-04-14 by SAE International in United States
Recently, car-sharing services using ultra-compact mobilities have been attracting attention as a means of transportation for one or two passengers in urban areas. A platooning system consisting of a manned leader vehicle and unmanned follower vehicles can reduce vehicle distributors. We have proposed a platooning system which controls vehicle motion based on the relative position and posture measured by non-contact coupling devices installed between vehicles. The feasibility of the coupling devices was validated through a HILS experiment. There are two basic requirements for realizing our platooning system; (1) all devices must remain coupled and (2) follower vehicles must be able to track the leader vehicle trajectory. Thus, this paper proposes two vehicle control method for satisfying those requirements. They are the “device coupling and trajectory tracking merging method” and the “trajectory shifting method”. The device coupling and trajectory tracking merging method consisting of a coupling keeping controller and a trajectory tracking controller. The predominant controller is chosen according to the amount of the coupling device error and the trajectory tracking error. The trajectory shifting method…
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A New Approach of Generating Travel Demands for Smart Transportation Systems Modeling

Ford Motor Company-Zhen Jiang, Chen Liang, Cassandra Telenko, Bo Wang, Yan Fu
Purdue University-Ruoxi Wen, Hua Cai
  • Technical Paper
  • 2020-01-1047
To be published on 2020-04-14 by SAE International in United States
The transportation sector is facing three revolutions: shared mobility, electrification, and autonomous driving. To inform decision making and guide smart transportation system development at the city-level, it is critical to model and evaluate how travelers will behave in these systems. Two key components in such models are (1) individual travel demands with high spatial and temporal resolutions, and (2) travelers’ sociodemographic information and trip purposes. These components impact one’s acceptance of autonomous vehicles, adoption of electric vehicles, and participation in shared mobility. Existing methods of travel demand generation either lack travelers’ demographic information and trip purposes, or only generate trips at a zonal level. Higher resolution demand and sociodemographic data can enable analysis of trips’ shareability for car sharing and ride pooling and evaluation of electric vehicles’ charging needs. To address this data gap, we propose a new approach of travel demand generation based on households. Census data provide the demographic information for each household (e.g., the number of adults and kids, income and education level, vehicle ownership etc.). The travel demands of each individual…
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Hardware-in-the-Loop, Traffic-in-the-Loop and Software-in-the-Loop Autonomous Vehicle Simulation for Mobility Studies

Ford Motor Company-Archak Mittal, Adit Joshi, James Fishelson
Ohio State University-Karina Meneses Cime, Mustafa Ridvan Cantas, Garrett Dowd, Levent Guvenc, Bilin Aksun Guvenc
  • Technical Paper
  • 2020-01-0704
To be published on 2020-04-14 by SAE International in United States
We are interested in finding and analyzing the relevant parameters affecting traffic flow when introducing Autonomous Vehicles for ride hailing applications and Autonomous Shuttles for circulator applications in geo-fenced urban areas. Different scenarios have been created in traffic simulation software that model the different levels of autonomy, traffic density, routes, and other traffic elements. Similarly, software that specializes in vehicle dynamics, physical limitations, and vehicle control has been used to closely simulate such scenarios. On the other hand, software for autonomous entities is also continuously improved. However, benchmarks for such software usually run in isolation from other factors such as the ones mentioned above. Yet, in order to effectively study the effects of the introduction of autonomous agents into city streets, all these factors must be considered. For these reasons, different simulation tools are needed to converge into a single simulation environment. We create a realistic simulator with Hardware-in-the-Loop (HiL), Traffic-in-the-Loop (TiL), and Software in-the-Loop (SiL) simulation capabilities. Our work merges the traffic simulation software Vissim to create realistic traffic, the vehicle dynamic simulation software…
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Hyundai, Uber show electric VTOL air-taxi concept

Automotive Engineering: March 2020

Bill Visnic
  • Magazine Article
  • 20AUTP03_11
Published 2020-03-01 by SAE International in United States

Hyundai at CES 2020 revealed a fullsize electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) “air taxi” concept and confirmed it has joined Uber's aerial ride-share initiative known as Elevate. Hyundai said the S-A1 concept, in addition to its VTOL configuration, is designed for cruising speeds up to 180 mph (290 km/h) for trips of up to 60 miles (97 km). Operating altitudes are targeted at between 1,000 to 2,000 ft. (300 to 600 m) for the four-passenger vehicle. The S-A1's performance is within Uber Elevate's broad guidance for urban aero-rideshare designs.

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Unsettled Impacts of Integrating Automated Electric Vehicles into a Mobility-as-a-Service Ecosystem and Effects on Traditional Transportation and Ownership

International Transportation Innovation Center (ITIC)-Joachim Taiber
Tallinn University of Technology-Raivo Sell
  • Research Report
  • EPR2019004
Published 2019-12-20 by SAE International in United States
The current business model of the automotive industry is based on individual car ownership, yet new ridesharing companies such as Uber and Lyft are well capitalized to invest in large, commercially operated, on-demand mobility service vehicle fleets. Car manufacturers like Tesla want to incorporate personal car owners into part-time fleet operation by utilizing the company’s fleet service. These robotaxi fleets can be operated profitably when the technology works in a reliable manner and regulators allow driverless operation.Although Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) models of private and commercial vehicle fleets can complement public transportation models, they may contribute to lower public transportation ridership and thus higher subsidies per ride. This can lead to inefficiencies in the utilization of existing public transportation infrastructure. MaaS platforms can also cause a reduced reliance on parking infrastructure (e.g., street parking lanes and parking garages) which can contribute to an improvement in overall traffic flow, and a reduction in capital investment for commercial and residential real-estate development. Urban planning can be better centered around the true mobility needs of the citizens without sacrificing valuable…
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Self-Expressive & Self-Healing Closures Hardwares for Autonomous & Shared Mobility

General Motors Technical Center India-Vijayasarathy Subramanian, Biju Kumar, Masani Sivakrishna, Anandakumar Marappan
  • Technical Paper
  • 2019-28-2525
Published 2019-11-21 by SAE International in United States
Shared Mobility is changing mobility trends of Automotive Industry and its one of the Disruptions. The current vehicle customer usage and life of components are designed majorly for personal vehicle and with factors that comprehend usage of shared vehicles. The usage pattern for customer differ between personal vehicle, shared vehicle & Taxi. In the era of Autonomous and Shared mobility systems, the customer usage and expectation of vehicle condition on each & every ride of vehicle will be a vehicle in good condition on each ride. The vehicle needs systems that will guide or fix the issues on its own, to improve customer satisfaction. We also need a transformation in customer behavior pattern to use shared mobility vehicle as their personal vehicle to improve the life of vehicle hardwares & reduce warranty cost. We will be focusing on Vehicle Closure hardware & mechanisms as that will be the first and major interaction point for customers in vehicle. This gives us an opportunity to improve product life and customer experience in ride share and shared mobility…
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The Road to Automobility

Autonomous Vehicle Engineering: December 2019

Lawrence D. Burns
  • Magazine Article
  • 19AVEP11_03
Published 2019-11-01 by SAE International in United States

The era of electrified, self-driving vehicles is upon us. Engineers are key to the transformation - with much hard work still to be done.

In 1911, eight years after the Wright Brothers flew the first airplane, French general Ferdinand Foch dismissed the new technology. “Airplanes are interesting scientific toys,” he scoffed, “but they are of no military value.” World War I and the wave of aeronautical progress it triggered would prove Foch wrong. Today, automobility is the subject of a “hype or ripe” debate similar in spirit to what the airplane experienced in its nascent years.

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The AV Industry Searches for a Near-Term Business Case

Autonomous Vehicle Engineering: December 2019

Bradley Berman
  • Magazine Article
  • 19AVEP11_09
Published 2019-11-01 by SAE International in United States

The TechCrunch Sessions at San Jose's Mobility 2019 conference advance the dialogue for real-world business cases for AVs.

An impressive lineup of the world's leading autonomous vehicle (AV) companies gathered in San Jose for the TechCrunch Sessions: Mobility 2019 conference. Technologists, executives and transportation experts took to the stage of the California Theater, a beautifully restored 1920s-era motion-picture house. The venue has a long legacy of presenting fantastical movies, operas, and vaudeville shows. However, the day-long, back-to-back 20-minute conversations on stage struck a note of hyper-realism.

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Far and Away: Remote Drivers Monitor Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous Vehicle Engineering: December 2019

Terry Costlow
  • Magazine Article
  • 19AVEP11_04
Published 2019-11-01 by SAE International in United States

Remote operators are helping autonomous shuttles and other AVs navigate through complex situations.

Eliminating the safety “watchdogs” who typically ride in autonomous vehicles (AVs) is a big step for technologists and legislators alike. A shuttle at Texas A&M University is among the first on public streets to replace these drivers with a remote operator who monitors vehicle behavior from an operations center.

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