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Automated Driving System Safety: Miles for 95% Confidence in “Vision Zero”

Driving Safety Consulting LLC-Richard Allen Young
  • Technical Paper
  • 2020-01-1205
To be published on 2020-04-14 by SAE International in United States
Engineering reliability models from RAND, MobilEye, and Volvo concluded that billions of miles of on-road data were required to validate that the real-world fatality rate of an “Automated Driving System-equipped vehicle” (AV) fleet for an improvement over human-driven conventional vehicles (CV). RAND said 5 billion miles for 20%, MobileEye 30 billion for 99.9%, and Volvo 5 billion for 50% improvement. All these models used the Gaussian distribution, which is inaccurate for low crash numbers. The current study proposes a new epidemiologic method and criterion to validate real-world AV data with 95% confidence for zero to ten fatal crashes. The upper confidence limit (UL) of the AV fatal crash rate has to be lower than the CV fatal crash rate with 95% confidence. That criterion is met if the UL of the AV fatal crash incidence rate ratio estimate is below one. That UL was estimated using the mid-P exact method for calculating confidence limits for a dual Poisson process, using a one-tailed 95% confidence level. The required AV mileage was adjusted by trial and error…
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Real-Time Optimization of Control Strategy for a Range-Extended Electric Vehicle using Reinforcement Learning Algorithm and Neural Network

Nipun Mittal, Aditya Pundlikrao Bhagat, Shubham Bhide, Bharadwaj Acharya, Bin Xu, Chris Paredis
  • Technical Paper
  • 2020-01-1190
To be published on 2020-04-14 by SAE International in United States
Range-Extended Electric Vehicles (REEV) have seen an increase in market share in the past decade. This trend can be attributed to an increased market shift towards electrified powertrains while addressing the range anxiety usually associated with an electric vehicle. In such a scenario, operating the vehicle efficiently is critical to meet the CAFÉ standards. This energy optimization problem becomes even more critical if the vehicle is being operated as part of a fleet as minimal energy savings get compounded across the fleet and result in significant savings for the service provider and more affordability for the customers. There is also an upward trend in ride sharing services operated by fleet owners like Uber and Waymo. Fleet vehicles offer the unique advantage of availability of large amounts of data about the consumer usage pattern in a given area. When coupled with traffic density and immediate destination of the current consumer of the vehicle, the data can assist the improvement of fuel economy while a traditional rule-based strategy can hardly take advantage of the data. Deep Orange…
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A New Approach of Generating Travel Demands for Smart Transportation Systems Modeling

Ford Motor Company-Zhen Jiang, Chen Liang, Cassandra Telenko, Bo Wang, Yan Fu
Purdue University-Ruoxi Wen, Hua Cai
  • Technical Paper
  • 2020-01-1047
To be published on 2020-04-14 by SAE International in United States
The transportation sector is facing three revolutions: shared mobility, electrification, and autonomous driving. To inform decision making and guide smart transportation system development at the city-level, it is critical to model and evaluate how travelers will behave in these systems. Two key components in such models are (1) individual travel demands with high spatial and temporal resolutions, and (2) travelers’ sociodemographic information and trip purposes. These components impact one’s acceptance of autonomous vehicles, adoption of electric vehicles, and participation in shared mobility. Existing methods of travel demand generation either lack travelers’ demographic information and trip purposes, or only generate trips at a zonal level. Higher resolution demand and sociodemographic data can enable analysis of trips’ shareability for car sharing and ride pooling and evaluation of electric vehicles’ charging needs. To address this data gap, we propose a new approach of travel demand generation based on households. Census data provide the demographic information for each household (e.g., the number of adults and kids, income and education level, vehicle ownership etc.). The travel demands of each individual…
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Hardware-in-the-Loop, Traffic-in-the-Loop and Software-in-the-Loop Autonomous Vehicle Simulation for Mobility Studies

Ford Motor Company-Archak Mittal, Adit Joshi, James Fishelson
Ohio State University-Karina Meneses Cime, Mustafa Ridvan Cantas, Garrett Dowd, Levent Guvenc, Bilin Aksun Guvenc
  • Technical Paper
  • 2020-01-0704
To be published on 2020-04-14 by SAE International in United States
We are interested in finding and analyzing the relevant parameters affecting traffic flow when introducing Autonomous Vehicles for ride hailing applications and Autonomous Shuttles for circulator applications in geo-fenced urban areas. Different scenarios have been created in traffic simulation software that model the different levels of autonomy, traffic density, routes, and other traffic elements. Similarly, software that specializes in vehicle dynamics, physical limitations, and vehicle control has been used to closely simulate such scenarios. On the other hand, software for autonomous entities is also continuously improved. However, benchmarks for such software usually run in isolation from other factors such as the ones mentioned above. Yet, in order to effectively study the effects of the introduction of autonomous agents into city streets, all these factors must be considered. For these reasons, different simulation tools are needed to converge into a single simulation environment. We create a realistic simulator with Hardware-in-the-Loop (HiL), Traffic-in-the-Loop (TiL), and Software in-the-Loop (SiL) simulation capabilities. Our work merges the traffic simulation software Vissim to create realistic traffic, the vehicle dynamic simulation software…
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Unsettled Impacts of Integrating Automated Electric Vehicles into a Mobility-as-a-Service Ecosystem and Effects on Traditional Transportation and Ownership

International Transportation Innovation Center (ITIC)-Joachim Taiber
  • Research Report
  • EPR2019004
Published 2019-12-20 by SAE International in United States
The current business model of the automotive industry is based on individual car ownership, yet new ridesharing companies such as Uber and Lyft are well capitalized to invest in large, commercially operated, on-demand mobility service vehicle fleets. Car manufacturers like Tesla want to incorporate personal car owners into part-time fleet operation by utilizing the company’s fleet service. These robotaxi fleets can be operated profitably when the technology works in a reliable manner and regulators allow driverless operation.Although Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) models of private and commercial vehicle fleets can complement public transportation models, they may contribute to lower public transportation ridership and thus higher subsidies per ride. This can lead to inefficiencies in the utilization of existing public transportation infrastructure. MaaS platforms can also cause a reduced reliance on parking infrastructure (e.g., street parking lanes and parking garages) which can contribute to an improvement in overall traffic flow, and a reduction in capital investment for commercial and residential real-estate development. Urban planning can be better centered around the true mobility needs of the citizens without sacrificing valuable…
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Self-Expressive & Self-Healing Closures Hardwares for Autonomous & Shared Mobility

General Motors Technical Center India-Vijayasarathy Subramanian, Biju Kumar, Masani Sivakrishna, Anandakumar Marappan
  • Technical Paper
  • 2019-28-2525
Published 2019-11-21 by SAE International in United States
Shared Mobility is changing mobility trends of Automotive Industry and its one of the Disruptions. The current vehicle customer usage and life of components are designed majorly for personal vehicle and with factors that comprehend usage of shared vehicles. The usage pattern for customer differ between personal vehicle, shared vehicle & Taxi. In the era of Autonomous and Shared mobility systems, the customer usage and expectation of vehicle condition on each & every ride of vehicle will be a vehicle in good condition on each ride. The vehicle needs systems that will guide or fix the issues on its own, to improve customer satisfaction. We also need a transformation in customer behavior pattern to use shared mobility vehicle as their personal vehicle to improve the life of vehicle hardwares & reduce warranty cost. We will be focusing on Vehicle Closure hardware & mechanisms as that will be the first and major interaction point for customers in vehicle. This gives us an opportunity to improve product life and customer experience in ride share and shared mobility…
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The Road to Automobility

Autonomous Vehicle Engineering: December 2019

Lawrence D. Burns
  • Magazine Article
  • 19AVEP11_03
Published 2019-11-01 by SAE International in United States

The era of electrified, self-driving vehicles is upon us. Engineers are key to the transformation - with much hard work still to be done.

In 1911, eight years after the Wright Brothers flew the first airplane, French general Ferdinand Foch dismissed the new technology. “Airplanes are interesting scientific toys,” he scoffed, “but they are of no military value.” World War I and the wave of aeronautical progress it triggered would prove Foch wrong. Today, automobility is the subject of a “hype or ripe” debate similar in spirit to what the airplane experienced in its nascent years.

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The AV Industry Searches for a Near-Term Business Case

Autonomous Vehicle Engineering: December 2019

Bradley Berman
  • Magazine Article
  • 19AVEP11_09
Published 2019-11-01 by SAE International in United States

The TechCrunch Sessions at San Jose's Mobility 2019 conference advance the dialogue for real-world business cases for AVs.

An impressive lineup of the world's leading autonomous vehicle (AV) companies gathered in San Jose for the TechCrunch Sessions: Mobility 2019 conference. Technologists, executives and transportation experts took to the stage of the California Theater, a beautifully restored 1920s-era motion-picture house. The venue has a long legacy of presenting fantastical movies, operas, and vaudeville shows. However, the day-long, back-to-back 20-minute conversations on stage struck a note of hyper-realism.

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Far and Away: Remote Drivers Monitor Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous Vehicle Engineering: December 2019

Terry Costlow
  • Magazine Article
  • 19AVEP11_04
Published 2019-11-01 by SAE International in United States

Remote operators are helping autonomous shuttles and other AVs navigate through complex situations.

Eliminating the safety “watchdogs” who typically ride in autonomous vehicles (AVs) is a big step for technologists and legislators alike. A shuttle at Texas A&M University is among the first on public streets to replace these drivers with a remote operator who monitors vehicle behavior from an operations center.

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Cutting weight seen as less vital for automated and shared vehicles

Automotive Engineering: October 2019

Paul Weissler
  • Magazine Article
  • 19AUTP10_10
Published 2019-10-01 by SAE International in United States

After long demonstrating lightweighting with steel for contemporary passenger vehicles, the Steel Market Development Institute (SMDI) is slightly changing the tune for a future of Autonomous, Connected, Electric and Shared (ACES) vehicles.

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