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ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

Department of Energy-Jacob Ward
National Renewable Energy Laboratory-Aaron Brooker, Jeffrey Gonder, Sean Lopp
Published 2015-04-14 by SAE International in United States
The Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on future U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions.ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method to estimate vehicle sales. Specifically, it estimate sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced.The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based…
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FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance

National Renewable Energy Laboratory-Aaron Brooker, Jeffrey Gonder, Lijuan Wang, Eric Wood, Sean Lopp, Laurie Ramroth
Published 2015-04-14 by SAE International in United States
The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery life. The input data for most light-duty vehicles can be automatically imported. Those inputs can be modified to represent variations of the vehicle or powertrain. The vehicle and its components are then simulated through speed-versus-time drive cycles. At each time step, FASTSim accounts for drag, acceleration, ascent, rolling resistance, each powertrain component's efficiency and power limits, and regenerative braking. Conventional vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, all-electric vehicles, compressed natural gas vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles are included. Powertrains with electric-traction drive can optionally be simulated using electric roadway technologies such as dynamic wireless power transfer. FASTSim also has an interface for running large batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim's calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable…
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Development of a Vehicle-Level Simulation Model for Evaluating the Trade-Off between Various Advanced On-Board Hydrogen Storage Technologies for Fuel Cell Vehicles

Ford Motor Company-Michael Veenstra
National Renewable Energy Laboratory-Matthew Thornton, Aaron Brooker, Jonathon Cosgrove
Published 2012-04-16 by SAE International in United States
One of the most critical elements in engineering a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is the design of the on-board hydrogen storage system. Because the current compressed-gas hydrogen storage technology has several key challenges, including cost, volume and capacity, materials-based storage technologies are being evaluated as an alternative approach. These materials-based hydrogen storage technologies include metal hydrides, chemical hydrides, and adsorbent materials, all of which have drawbacks of their own. To optimize the engineering of storage systems based on these materials, it is critical to understand the impacts these systems will have on the overall vehicle system performance and what trade-offs between the hydrogen storage systems and the vehicle systems might exist that allow these alternative storage approaches to be viable.To gain a better understanding of the interactions that exist between various materials-based hydrogen storage systems and the vehicle system as well as the engineering challenges that exist when integrating one of these systems with a vehicle, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a vehicle-level model designed to be sensitive to these issues. The Hydrogen…
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Technology Improvement Pathways to Cost-effective Vehicle Electrification

National Renewable Energy Laboratory-Aaron Brooker, Matthew Thornton, John Rugh
Published 2010-04-12 by SAE International in United States
Electrifying transportation can reduce or eliminate dependence on foreign fuels, emission of green house gases, and emission of pollutants. One challenge is finding a pathway for vehicles that gains wide market acceptance to achieve a meaningful benefit. This paper evaluates several approaches aimed at making plug-in electric vehicles (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) cost-effective including opportunity charging, replacing the battery over the vehicle life, improving battery life, reducing battery cost, and providing electric power directly to the vehicle during a portion of its travel. Many combinations of PHEV electric range and battery power are included. For each case, the model accounts for battery cycle life and the national distribution of driving distances to size the battery optimally. Using the current estimates of battery life and cost, only the dynamically plugged-in pathway was cost-effective to the consumer. Significant improvements in battery life and battery cost also made PHEVs more cost-effective than today's hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (CVs).
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