Predicting Man-Machine System Performance in Predesign

A fundamental problem in the procurement of military weapons systems is the capability for the procurement system to field the materiel in time to counter the mfssion shortcoming. This is particularly difficult in the real-life realm of a constantly changing threat. Valid system (that is, crew and equipment) performance predictions, particularly during the early stages of design, may be a key to solving this problem. Advances in digital simulation and artificial intelligence techniques have made such predictions possible. In this paper, classical digital simulation approaches and models are reviewed and a particular (hybrid) model is discussed in depth. Predictive validation data are presented to illustrate that this model can achieve the system design goals during predesign.