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Reasons for changes in MPG Estimates, Model Year 1978 to the Present
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English
Abstract
In model year 1983, new car MPG declined for the first time in ten years. Accompanying this decline in MPG, the size of the average car increased, car weights and engine sizes increased and diesel sales declined - all reversing their movements over the previous ten years. Using carline MPG estimates and sales figures, it is estimated that new car MPG declined 0.29 in 1983 after rising 6.70 MPG over the previous four years. Furthermore, it is estimated that actions by new car buyers would have lowered the 1983 MPG 0.40 MPG through the purchase of larger cars, cars with larger engines and fewer diesel engines if the manufacturers had not made some fuel economy improvements and introduced some new high-MPG cars.
A simple model of future fuel use increases as a function of MPG levels below a specified level consistent with the CAFE standards shows that the costs of lower fuel economy will only gradually be felt, but that these costs will increase over time and persist for over a decade.
Authors
Citation
Patterson, P., Westbrook, F., Greene, D., and Roberts, G., "Reasons for changes in MPG Estimates, Model Year 1978 to the Present," SAE Technical Paper 840500, 1984, https://doi.org/10.4271/840500.Also In
References
- Murrell J. D. et. al. “Passenger Car Fuel Economy….Trends thru 1984,” SAE Paper 840999 March 1984
- The Newsweek June 27 1983
- Roberts G.F. et. al. Motor Vehicle MPG and Market Shares Report Oak Ridge National Laboratory
- Stark H. Ward's Automotive Reports Ward's Communications, Inc.
- Stark H. Ward's Automotive Reports Ward's Communications, Inc. November 14 1983
- Patterson P. Westbrook F. “Impact of Consumer and Manufacturer Decisions on New Car Fuel Economy,” SAE Paper 830545 February 1983
- “Gas Guzzlers Returning from Ignominy” New York Times August 23 1983 “The Comeback of the Big Car,” New York Times May 4 1983 “Big-Car Rebound Revives V-8 Engine,” Christian Science Monitor July 7 1983 “There's Still Magic in Buying a BIG Car,” Washington Post July 10 1983
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Energy 1983 Gas Mileage Guide, Washington, D.C. October 1983
- U. S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 1982 Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0383(82) Washington, D.C. April 1983