This content is not included in
your SAE MOBILUS subscription, or you are not logged in.
Techniques for Forecasting Farm and Industrial Tractor Sales
Annotation ability available
Sector:
Language:
English
Abstract
Various techniques are presented and evaluated for their ability to forecast equipment sales in the agricultural industry. The forecasting methods discussed include trend approximation, time series moving averages, exponential smoothing, Delphi Method, buyer intentions and econometric models. A model that predicts future sales for industrial tractors was presented including a 1978 forecast. Leading indicators for Industrial Tractor Sales were GNP construction dollars, index of prices of construction machinery and new housing starts. Also, a farm tractor sales model and the resulting difficulty in finding leading indicators were discussed. Statistical methods required for econometric forecasting and model validity testing are given.
Recommended Content
Ground Vehicle Standard | Network Management |
Ground Vehicle Standard | Specification Definitions-Skidder-Grapple |
Ground Vehicle Standard | Nomenclature - Clam Bunk Skidder |
Authors
Citation
Krutz, G., Doster, D., and Moyer, J., "Techniques for Forecasting Farm and Industrial Tractor Sales," SAE Technical Paper 780753, 1978, https://doi.org/10.4271/780753.Also In
References
- Tersine R.J. Riggs W. E. “Delphi Technique: A Long Range Planning Tool.” Business Horizons April 1976
- Zaloom V. A. “The Delphi Technique.” Journal of Systems Management October 1974
- Miller I. M. Freund J. E. “Probability and Statistics for Engineers.” Prentice-Hall, Inc. Englewood Cliffs, NJ. 1965
- Pegels C. Carl “Management Science.” Journal of the Institute of Mgmt. Sciences 15 5 January 1969
- Adams F. G. DeJanosi P.E. “Statistics and Econometrics of Forecasting,” How Business Economists Forecast Prentice-Hall, Inc. Englewood Cliffs, NJ. 1966
- “FIEI Reports,” Chicago, IL.
- “USDA Agri cul turai Statistics,” Government Printing Office Washington, DC.
- “Survey of Current Business,” Government Printing Office Washington, DC.
- “Ag-Pulse Outlook,” Farm Journal 230 Washington Square, Philadelphia, PA.
- “Forecasting Techniques,” Management Seminar Purdue University June 1977
- “SPSS,” Computer Library Purdue University W. Lafayette, IN 47907
- Cromarty W. A. “The Demand for Farm Machinery and Tractors,” Michigan State Expr. Station Bulletin #275 E. Lansing Michigan November 1959
- Segall A. “Farmers Attitudes to Farm Machinery Purchases,” Dept. of Sociology Univ. of Manitoba CANADA
- Kadlec J. Jones B.F. “Outlook and Management Considerations for Corn Belt Grain Farmers 1976
- “Demand for Farm Tractor in the United States,” Agr. Econ. Report 103 U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, DC 20402 1966
- Morris W. H. M. “When to Buy a New Tractor,” Agr. Engineering December 1966