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Accuracy of Launch Vehicle Cost Analysis
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Sector:
Event:
Space Technology Conference
Language:
English
Abstract
This paper presents a summary of an initial phase of a long term study to develop techniques for accurately predicting launch vehicle costs, and is an initial part of a larger research project to develop a computer program cost model for long range planning. Emphasis is on the accuracy or confidence associated with cost estimates calculated by industry launch vehicle cost models. Results are shown of a statistical analysis of the mean and standard deviation of sample model estimates for various cost elements of a liquid and solid launch vehicle program. The variations in the cost estimates are discussed.
Authors
Citation
Heuston, M., Fish, J., and Bradley, E., "Accuracy of Launch Vehicle Cost Analysis," SAE Technical Paper 670393, 1967, https://doi.org/10.4271/670393.Also In
References
- Fisher G. H. “A Discussion of Uncertainty in Cost Analysis.” The RAND Corp. April 1962
- Summers R. “Cost Estimates as Predictors of Actual Weapon Costs: A Study of Major Hardware Articles.” The RAND Corp. April 1962
- Peck M. J. “The Weapons Acquisition Process: An Economic Analysis.” Harvard University 1962
- Finke R. G. “Technologies and Economics of Reusable Space Launch Vehicles.” Institute of Defense Analysis February 1966
- Quade E. S. “Analysis for Military Decisions.” The RAND Corp. November 1965