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Reliability Estimation of Large-Scale Dynamic Systems by using Re-analysis and Tail Modeling
Technical Paper
2009-01-0200
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
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English
Abstract
Probabilistic studies can be prohibitively expensive because they require repeated finite element analyses of large models. Re-analysis methods have been proposed with the premise to estimate accurately the dynamic response of a structure after a baseline design has been modified, without recalculating the new response. Although these methods increase computational efficiency, they are still not efficient enough for probabilistic analysis of large-scale dynamic systems with low failure probabilities (less or equal to 10-3). This paper presents a methodology that uses deterministic and probabilistic re-analysis methods to generate sample points of the response. Subsequently, tail modeling is used to estimate the right tail of the response PDF and the probability of failure a highly reliable system. The methodology is demonstrated on probabilistic vibration analysis of a realistic vehicle FE model.
Authors
Citation
Mourelatos, Z., Song, J., and Nikolaidis, E., "Reliability Estimation of Large-Scale Dynamic Systems by using Re-analysis and Tail Modeling," SAE Technical Paper 2009-01-0200, 2009, https://doi.org/10.4271/2009-01-0200.Also In
Reliability and Robust Design in Automotive Engineering, 2009
Number: SP-2232; Published: 2009-04-20
Number: SP-2232; Published: 2009-04-20
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