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Test-Model Correlation in Spacecraft Thermal Control by Means of MonteCarlo Techniques
Technical Paper
2007-01-3120
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
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English
Abstract
In the paper some methods are presented, with the corresponding practical examples, related to MonteCarlo (MC) techniques for thermal model/test correlation purposes.
The MonteCarlo techniques applied to model correlation are intended to be used as an alternative to empirical ‘manual’ correlation techniques, gradients methods, matrix methods based on least square fit minimization.
First of all, Design Of Experiments (DoE) tools are used to determine the model response to uncertain parameters and the confidence level of such a response. A sensitivity map is built, allowing the design of the test to maximize the response of the system to the uncertain parameters.
Techniques derived from the extreme statistics are used to extrapolate data beyond test limits, with a sufficient confidence in the queue behaviour.
Finally the tool of the random walk is used for the model correlation, and an original ‘random waltz’ is introduced, being the combination of Latin hypercube sampling and pure random walk.
Citation
Molina, M. and Finzi, E., "Test-Model Correlation in Spacecraft Thermal Control by Means of MonteCarlo Techniques," SAE Technical Paper 2007-01-3120, 2007, https://doi.org/10.4271/2007-01-3120.Also In
References
- Molina M. MonteCarlo Techniques in Thermal Analysis Design Margins Determination Using Reduced Models and Experimental Data, Sae paper 2006-01-2113
- Pini C. Thermal Control for ISS External Payloads: EuTEF, EUROPA LOBSTER Sae paper 2003-01-2586
- Vettore C. Thermal Balance Test of the EuTEF Payload” SAE paper 2007-01-3166
- Giacomazzo M. AGILE satellite thermal balance and thermal vacuum test SAE paper 2007-01-3165
- Molina M. AGILE Satellite Thermal Control System design: thermal model uncertainty reduction SAE paper 2007-01-3082
- Montgomery D.C. Design and Analysis of Experiments Wiley
- Gumbel E. J. Statistic of extremes Dover
- Molina M. “MonteCarlo Techniques Development and Testing for Spacecraft Thermal Control” Politecnico di Milano PhD Thesis April 2007