This content is not included in
your SAE MOBILUS subscription, or you are not logged in.
Error Amplification in Failure Probability Estimates of Small Errors in Response Surface Approximations
Technical Paper
2007-01-0549
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
Annotation ability available
Sector:
Language:
English
Abstract
Response surface methods which approximate the actual performance function using simple algebraic equations are widely used in structural reliability studies. The response surface approximations are often used to estimate the reliability of a structure. Errors in the response surface approximation affect the results of reliability analysis. This work investigates the error in the failure probability estimated using a response surface approximation. It is observed that small errors in the response surface may amplify to large errors in the failure probability. It is observed that the amplification occurs when the failure surface is far away from the response mean and the DOE has more points near the mean. Another situation is when the failure region is a small island encompassed within the safe region, and the points in the DOE fail to capture the failure region. Analytical and engineering application examples are investigated to understand the amplification of error in the failure probability.
Authors
Topic
Citation
Ramu, P., Kim, N., and Haftka, R., "Error Amplification in Failure Probability Estimates of Small Errors in Response Surface Approximations," SAE Technical Paper 2007-01-0549, 2007, https://doi.org/10.4271/2007-01-0549.Also In
Reliability and Robust Design in Automotive Engineering, 2007
Number: SP-2119; Published: 2007-04-16
Number: SP-2119; Published: 2007-04-16
References
- Elishakoff I. Safety factors and reliability: friends or foes? Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht, The Netherlands 2004
- Khuri, A.I. Cornell, J.A. Response Surfaces Second Dekker, Inc. New York, NY 1996
- Kutaran, H. Eskandarian A. Marzougui D. Bedewi N. E. 2002 “Crashworthiness design optimization using successive response surface approximations Computational Mechanics 29 409 421
- Melchers, R.E. 1999 Structural reliability analysis and prediction Wiley New York
- Rajashekhar R.M. Ellingwood. B.R. 1993 “A new look at the response surface approach for reliability analysis,” Structural Safety 205 220
- Gupta. S. Manohar C.S. 2004 “An improved response surface method for the determination of failure probability and importance measures,” Structural Safety 26 123 139
- Venter, G. Haftka, R.T. Starnes, J.H., Jr. 1998 “Construction of response surface approximation for design optimization” AIAA J. 36 12 2242 2249
- Youn, B.D. Choi, K.K. “Selecting probabilistic approaches for reliability-based design optimization” AIAA Journal 42 1 2004
- Chen, S. Nikolaidis, E. Cudney, H. H. Comparison of Probabilistic and Fuzzy Set Methods for Designing under Uncertainty AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural dynamics, and Materials Conference and Exhibit 2860 2874 1999