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Future prospects for compression ignition fuel in California: energy and emissions implications of possible restrictions on diesel fuel combustion
Published May 31, 1999 by Technical University of Graz in Austria
This paper documents methods and results of an investigation of the options for the year 2010 consequences of possible new limitations on the use of diesel fuel in California, USA. California''s Air Resources Board will undertake a risk management process to determine steps necessary to protect the health and safety of the public from carcinogenic species resident on diesel combustion exhaust particles. Environmental activist groups continue to call for the elimination of diesel fuel in California and other populous states. It is the declared intention of CARB not to ban or restrict diesel fuel, per se, at this time. There are two "mid-course" strategies that, among others, may be considered feasible. 1. Increased penetration of natural gas and greater gasoline use in the transportation fuels market, to the extent that some CI applications would revert to spark-ignition (SI) engines. 2. New specifications requiring diesel fuel reformulation based on more detailed investigation of exhaust products of individual diesel fuel constituents.
Each of these alternatives results in some degree of (conventional) diesel displacement. In the first case, diesel pilot fuel is assumed admissible for NG-powered heavy-duty vehicles, and gasoline demand in California increases by 32.2 million liters per day overall, about 21 percent above projected 2010 baseline demand. It may be possible to meet this gasoline demand without severe disruption in 2010. Natural gas demand increases by 13.6 million diesel liter equivalents per day, about 7 percent above projected (total) consumption level. In the second case, compression-ignition engines utilize diesel substitutes. Although causing the least disruption to California, this case introduces new costs to the U. S. domestic economy in fuel distribution logistics, replacement fuel production capacity and investment, and total energy productivity. For each case we show air emission, greenhouse gas and energy changes. Economic implications of vehicle and engine replacement were not evaluated.