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An Ongoing Safety Risk Assessment and Determination of Correction Time Limit for Civil Aircraft
- Baohui Jia - Civil Aviation University of China, College of Transportation Science and Engineering, China ,
- Zhuo Wang - Civil Aviation University of China, College of Aeronautical Engineering, China ,
- Yiqiang Wang - Civil Aviation University of China, College of Transportation Science and Engineering, China ,
- Xiaowei Wen - Civil Aviation University of China, College of Transportation Science and Engineering, China
Journal Article
01-15-02-0013
ISSN: 1946-3855, e-ISSN: 1946-3901
Sector:
Topic:
Citation:
Jia, B., Wang, Z., Wang, Y., and Wen, X., "An Ongoing Safety Risk Assessment and Determination of Correction Time Limit for Civil Aircraft," SAE Int. J. Aerosp. 15(2):207-218, 2022, https://doi.org/10.4271/01-15-02-0013.
Language:
English
Abstract:
To ensure the ongoing safety of aircraft, it is necessary to conduct risk
assessment for those events that occurred during routine operations.
Consequently, the corresponding corrective actions should be accomplished within
the compliance time if the event was ascertained to be unsafe. However, the
existing models of risk assessment and determination of the correction time
limit have not dealt with the time-varying failure rate of components. Based on
the Gunstone method, this article considers the event risks of the fleet at
different correction time limits, combined with the Monte Carlo method to
establish a model of risk assessment and determination of the correction time
limit. Based on the event risk level and the risk per flight hour, the risks of
the event under the condition of no corrective actions and corrective actions
with different time limits were assessed, respectively. The unsafe status of a
certain fleet and the correction time limit were determined based on the risk
criteria. Finally, a case analysis was given to show the feasibility of the
model.