This content is not included in
your SAE MOBILUS subscription, or you are not logged in.
Demonstration of a Probabilistic Technique for the Determination of Aircraft Economic Viability
Annotation ability available
Sector:
Language:
English
Abstract
Over the past few years, modern aircraft design has experienced a paradigm shift from designing for performance to designing for affordability. This paper contains a probabilistic approach that will allow traditional deterministic design methods to be extended to account for disciplinary, economic, and technological uncertainty. The probabilistic approach was facilitated by the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) technique; a technique which allows the designer to gather valuable information about the vehicle's behavior in the design space. This technique is efficient for assessing multi-attribute, multi-constraint problems in a more realistic fashion. For implementation purposes, this technique is applied to illustrate how both economic and technological uncertainty associated with a Very Large Transport aircraft may be assessed. The assessment is evaluated with the FPI technique to determine the cumulative probability distributions of the design space, as bound by economic objectives and performance constraints. These distributions were compared to established targets for a comparable large capacity aircraft, similar in size to the Boeing 747-400. The conventional baseline configuration design space was determined to be marginally feasible and non-viable, motivating the infusion of advanced technologies, including laminar flow control, advanced materials, and advances in propulsion technology as to reflect 2005 entry into service. The resulting system benefits and penalties were qualitatively assessed with technology metric “k” factors. The infusion of technologies shifted the VLT design into regions of greater feasibility and viability. The study also demonstrated an method and relationship by which the impact of new technologies may be assessed in a more system focused approach. The impact of technology readiness and its associated risk was also addressed in this study and is not presented here.
Authors
Citation
Mavris, D., Mantis, G., and Kirby, M., "Demonstration of a Probabilistic Technique for the Determination of Aircraft Economic Viability," SAE Technical Paper 975585, 1997, https://doi.org/10.4271/975585.Also In
References
- Boeing Commercial Airplanes “1997 Current market Outlook, World market demand and airplane supply requirements,” Mar. 18 1997
- Windisch, J.J. “Plane of Dreams - Build it and They Will Come” 17 th Airport Conference Hershey, Pa. Mar. 1994
- Lenorvitz, J.M. “Airbus Survey Confirms Requirement for Very Large Transport Aircraft” Aviation Week & Space Technology Oct. 28 1991
- Mecham, M. “Cost, not Size, to Drive Success of Superjumbo” Aviation Week & Space Technology Nov. 21 1994 45
- Mecham, M. “Airbus to seek feedback on Super Jumbo Concept,” Aviation Week & Space Technology Sept 5 1994 49
- Leigh, R. “A3XX Briefing,” “The impact of the coming super jumbo aircraft on our airports' infrastructure and operations,” Washington, D.C. Mar. 3 1997
- Ramsden, J.M. “Towards the Megajet” Aerospace Aug. 1994 16
- Bartlett, D.W. McGraw, M.E. Arcara, P.C. Geiselhart, K.A. “Application of advanced technologies to very large subsonic transports” SAE Technical Paper 921938
- Mavris, D.N. Kirby, M.K. “Preliminary economic viability assessment of a family of very large transport configurations”
- Mavris, D.N. Bandte, O. “Comparison of Two Probabilistic Techniques for the Assessment of Economic Uncertainty.” 19th Annual Conference of the International Society of Parametric Analysts New Orleans, LA May 1997
- Mavris, D.N. Bandte, O. “A probabilistic approach to multivariate constrained robust design simulation” SAE Technical Paper 97-5508
- Southwest Research Institute FPI User's and Theoretical Manual San Antonio, TX 1995
- McCullers, L.A. “FLOPS User's Guide. Ver. 5.7” NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, VA Dec. 14 1994
- Marx, W. Mavris, D. “ALCCA User Notes.” Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory Atlanta, GA
- Kirby, M. “An Aerodynamic Investigation and Optimization of a Global Reach Transport Aircraft Using Response Surface Methodology and Design of Experiments.” Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory Atlanta, GA Dec. 1996
- Mantis, G. “Design and Economic Feasibility Study of a Dual-Mission Large Aircraft.” Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory Atlanta, GA Dec. 12 1996
- Twiss, B.C. Forecasting for technologists and engineers: A practical guide for better decisions Peter Peregrinus, Ltd. London, U.K. 1992
- SAS Institute Inc., JMP Computer Program and Users Manual Cary, NC 1994
- Mavris, D.N. Bandte, O. Schrage, D.P. Economic Uncertainty Assessment of an HSCT Using a Combined Design of Experiments/Monte Carlo Simulation Approach 17th Conference of the International Society of Parametric Analysts San Diego, CA June 1995
- Mavris, D.N. Bandte, O. Schrage, D.P. Application of Probabilistic Methods for the Determination of an Economically Robust HSCT Configuration AIAA/USAF/NASA/ ISSMO Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization Conference Bellevue, WA Sept 1996
- DeLaurentis, D.A. Mavris, D.N. Schrage, D.P. An IPPD Approach to the Preliminary Design Optimization of an HSCT using Design of Experiments 20th ICAS Congress Sorrento, Italy Sept. 1996
- “Advanced Technologies Applicable to Global Range Aircraft” Lockheed-Martin Aeronautical Systems May 5 1996
- New World Vistas Aircraft and Propulsion Volume United States Air Force Scientific Advisory Board, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base Dayton, OH Dec. 15 1995
- Kulfan, R.M. Vachal, J.D. “Wing planform geometry effects on large subsonic military transport airplanes” USAF Flight Dynamic Laboratory Report TR-78-16 Feb. 1978
- Boeing Commercial Airplane Company “Application of Laminar flow control to supersonic transport configurations” July 1990