Batteries for Electric Drive Vehicles: Evaluation of Future Characteristics and Costs Through a Delphi Study

Uncertainty about future costs and operating attributes of electric drive vehicles (EVs and HEVs) has contributed to considerable debate regarding the market viability of such vehicles. One way to deal with such uncertainty, common to most emerging technologies, is to pool the judgments of experts in the field. Data from a two-stage Delphi study are used to project the future costs and operating characteristics of electric drive vehicles. The experts projected basic vehicle characteristics for EVs and HEVs for the period 2000-2020. They projected the mean EV range at 179 km in 2000, 270 km in 2010, and 358 km in 2020. The mean HEV range on battery power was projected as 145 km in 2000, 212 km in 2010, and 244 km in 2020. Experts' opinions on 10 battery technologies are analyzed and characteristics of initial battery packs for the mean power requirements are presented. A procedure to compute the cost of replacement battery packs is described, and the resulting replacement costs are presented. Projected vehicle purchase prices and fuel and maintenance costs are also presented. The vehicle purchase price and curb weight predictions would be difficult to achieve with the mean battery characteristics. With the battery replacement costs added to the fuel and maintenance costs, the conventional ICE vehicle is projected to have a clear advantage over electric drive vehicles through the projection period.