Efforts to improve urban air quality have shown positive results in some regions, however, in several major urban areas air quality has not significantly improved despite drastic reductions in allowed emissions from individual vehicle sources. The primary reason for this is the dramatic growth in both the number of vehicles and, due to relatively low energy prices, the number of miles driven. In addition, pollution also occurs in connection with the operation of the large production and distribution infrastructure for gasoline and diesel fuels. As a result, extensive non-attainment areas continue to exist.
Further mitigation of vehicle and vehicle-related emissions have been enacted as part of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, but it is generally recognized that further air quality improvements in this area are becoming increasingly costly. The problem of diminishing returns for conventional fuel-powered transportation systems suggests that alternative approaches should be closely examined to see which, if any, might offer more effective solutions to urban air pollution or be used in combination with currently planned approaches to reduce total environmental protection costs.
One possible alternative is the substitution of electric vehicles for gasoline and diesel vehicles in sufficient numbers to contribute effectively to the achievement of existing and proposed goals for center-city non-attainment areas. The advantage of battery-powered vehicles is the consolidation of emissions to a small number of electricity production facilities, generally located outside the urban core, where control of such emissions is easier and more cost effective. However, vehicles powered by batteries alone typically have marginal performance characteristics and limited range.
This paper presents a total systems approach to the evaluation of electric vehicles and the interaction of the many various system variables in arriving at an understanding of how and where such vehicles will be utilized. The model presented considers the following principal electric vehicles impact factors: market, government, industry and technology. Each of this primary factors is then divided into their constituent components to arrive at a total system model. Forecast of various system interactions are presented and discussed.