The increasing power and safety requirements of electrical systems present a challenge for future automotive electrical networks. However, the modeling of use-profiles and the overall power consumption of electrical systems proves to be difficult as the number of potential on/off combinations of the loads is tremendous. Furthermore, the operation of some loads is correlated or depends upon the operating conditions. Thus, simple worst-case calculations applied to this complexity often lead to an over-specification of components.
The proposed approach is based on the probabilities of loads being in the on-state and their respective interdependencies with each other and with boundary conditions such as time of day. Applying basic statistics and a new iterative algorithm, it allows the calculation of the probability of consumed total power for a given set of boundary conditions and of, very importantly, its expected continuous period. Such information is a sound base for the identification of critical power situations, the layout of components, and for investigations of the power balance. The paper presents the theory, method, database, results, and a first application example, followed by a discussion of future potentials.
