Assessing the Battery Cost at Which Plug-in Hybrid Medium-Duty Parcel Delivery Vehicles Become Cost-Effective

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) validated conventional diesel and diesel-hybrid, medium-duty parcel delivery vehicle models to evaluate petroleum reductions and cost implications of hybrid and plug-in hybrid diesel variants. The hybrid and plug-in hybrid variants are run on a field data-derived design matrix to analyze the effect of drive cycle, distance, engine downsizing, battery replacements, and battery energy on fuel consumption and lifetime cost. For an array of diesel fuel costs, the battery cost per kilowatt-hour at which the hybridized configuration becomes cost-effective is calculated. The results build on a previous analysis that found the fuel savings from medium-duty, plug-in hybrids more than offset vehicle incremental price for future battery and fuel cost projections; however, they seldom did so under present day cost assumptions in the absence of purchase incentives. The results also highlight the importance of understanding the application's drive-cycle-specific daily distance and kinetic intensity.