What Alternative Drive-train Technologies and Policies are Needed to Meet a 50% CO ₂ Reduction Target? The Case of the EU-Fleet

Facing global climate change and the oncoming shortage of fossil resources, it is necessary to reduce fossil energy consumption. There is a strong need for action concerning road traffic as a main originator of greenhouse gas emissions by use of fossil energy. For a strong mitigation effect, the technological improvement of today’s petrol and diesel engines has to be accompanied by the promotion of alternative vehicles, still being sparsely represented in most car fleets. The spread of one or more new drive-train technologies throughout the transportation sector represents an innovation diffusion process, which is needed in order to achieve long-term climate and energy policy goals. By applying our recently developed model for the market penetration of competing alternative drive-train technologies, this work contributes to the understanding of main processes influencing the diffusion rate. The model is used to simulate the emerging technology diffusion within different scenarios, in order to test the chosen policy measures and promotion strategies. These scenarios are applied to the European car fleet. The following question will be addressed: What technologies and policies are needed to meet the postulated 50% CO₂ reduction target till 2050?

The insight of this contribution is relevant for stakeholders who are interested in the potential or the spread of new drive-train technologies, as for instance car manufacturers, fuel suppliers or governmental authorities at different levels. Learning about significant leverage points in the market penetration of alternative vehicles and its CO₂ reduction potential in the fleet is decisive for policy implementation.