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The Prospects for Hybrid Electric Vehicles, 2005-2020: Results of a Delphi Study
Technical Paper
1999-01-2942
ISSN: 0148-7191, e-ISSN: 2688-3627
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English
Abstract
The introduction of Toyota's hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), the Prius, in Japan has generated considerable interest in HEV technology among U.S. automotive experts. In a follow-up survey to Argonne National Laboratory's two-stage Delphi Study on electric and hybrid electric vehicles (EVs and HEVs) during 1994-1996, Argonne researchers gathered the latest opinions of automotive experts on the future “top-selling” HEV attributes and costs. The experts predicted that HEVs would have a spark-ignition gasoline engine as a power plant in 2005 and a fuel cell power plant by 2020. The projected 2020 fuel shares were about equal for gasoline and hydrogen, with methanol a distant third. In 2020, HEVs are predicted to have series-drive, moderate battery-alone range and cost significantly more than conventional vehicles (CVs). The HEV is projected to cost 66% more than a $20,000 CV initially and 33% more by 2020. Survey respondents view batteries as the component that contributes the most to the HEV cost increment. The mean projection for battery-alone range is 49 km in 2005, 70 km in 2010, and 92 km in 2020. Responding to a question relating to their personal vision of the most desirable HEV and its likely characteristics when introduced in the U.S. market in the next decade, the experts predicted their “vision” HEV to have attributes very similar to those of the “top-selling” HEV. However, the “vision” HEV would cost significantly less. The experts projected attributes of three leading batteries for HEVs and projected acceleration times on battery power alone. The resulting battery packs are evaluated, and their initial and replacement costs are analyzed. These and several other opinions are summarized.
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Authors
Citation
Ng, H., Vyas, A., and Santini, D., "The Prospects for Hybrid Electric Vehicles, 2005-2020: Results of a Delphi Study," SAE Technical Paper 1999-01-2942, 1999, https://doi.org/10.4271/1999-01-2942.Also In
Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Fuel Cell Technology
Number: SP-1466; Published: 1999-08-17
Number: SP-1466; Published: 1999-08-17
References
- FHWA 1997 1995 NPTS Data Files: Compact Disk and Codebook Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation Washington, D.C.
- Plotkin, S. et al. 1999 Hybrid Electric Vehicles Total Energy Cycle Analysis Presented at the 78 th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board Washington, D.C.
- Singh, M.K. et al. 1998 Total Energy Cycle Assessment of Electric and Conventional Vehicles: An Energy and Environmental Analysis Vol. I-IV Washington, D.C.
- Stodolsky, F. et al. 1999 Total Fuel Cycle Impacts of Advanced Vehicles Presented at the 1999 SAE International Congress and Exposition at Detroit, Michigan 1999-01-0322 SAE International Warrendale, PA
- Vyas, A.D. Ng H.K. Santini D.J. Anderson J.L. 1997a Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicles: A Technology Assessment Based on a Two-Stage Delphi Study Argonne National Laboratory Report ANL/ESD-36 Argonne, IL
- Vyas, A.D. Ng H.K. Santini D.J. Anderson J.L. 1997b Batteries for Electric Drive Vehicles: Evaluation of Future Characteristics and Costs Through a Delphi Study 1997 SAE International Report SP-1274 13 34 Warrendale, PA